Cutting Edge Newsletter™ May 2007Business BriefingWeakening U.S./Canadian TradeBy Art Raymond, araymond@raymondnet.com
With geographic proximity and a common language, Canada and the U.S. are natural trading partners. Canada is our largest export customer for hardwood products like logs, lumber, flooring, moulding and furniture. Since 1997, the Canadian share of U.S. exports of these products has risen from 30 to 39 percent and now totals $1.33 billion. The U.S. is Canada's number one customer for export wood furniture and their furniture makers use lots of U.S. grown lumber. Add a stronger Canadian dollar, which has strengthened by 26 percent against the U.S. dollar since hitting its low in January 2001, and you should have solid prospects for growing export sales across our northern border. But, look at recent trade data. Exports of primary hardwood raw materials to Canada have dropped significantly since peaking in 2004. Logs exports to our northern neighbors are down nearly 19%, while lumber shipments have dropped by 6.5%. What happened? Like other similar trade stories, the culprit is China. In 2004, the Canadian furniture industry began feeling the impact of well-priced Chinese imports. Chinese furniture shipments to Canada grew by 43% that year, and through 2006, the 3-year growth was 143%. Total 2006 shipments were US $1.38 billon. Not bad for a country that only shipped US$101 million of furniture products to Canada in 1997. Over that period, Canadian producers have shuttered furniture plants. Shermag, one of Canada's largest furniture makers, has closed six plants in the last two years. In late 2005 their furniture trade association brought an action to the Canadian government requesting safeguard tariffs on imported furniture from China. That attempt to protect domestic furniture production was unsuccessful. We are seeing an instant replay of events that have occurred since 2000 in the U.S. furniture industry. Canada's furniture industry is heavily dependent on exports to the U.S. Our market takes 95% of their furniture exports. Last year, those exports actually fell. Less furniture production means less lumber consumption. The decline of Canadian furniture production bodes badly for US hardwood exporters. Keep your eye on this important trade story. China Moving Up Value-Added Curve The goal of any developing economy is to increase its manufacture of higher value-added products. Low-value, high labor content products are replaced with higher-value goods for both domestic and export markets. By doing so, workers' wages can rise, and their standard of living can grow. In furniture, Taiwan is a good example of this economic evolution. From the mid 1970's until the early 1990's, that country was the leading source country of wood furniture imports by the U.S. As Taiwan's productive workforce attracted investment by electronics makers and other high value industries, wages rose. Soon the prevailing labor costs became an economic disadvantage for Taiwanese furniture producers. Drawn by cheaper wages, the Taiwanese relocated their plants to China. That move jump started the Chinese wood furniture industry. China is no different. While much of their economic strength has been built on the backs of their low-cost workforce, officials there are focusing on changing their manufacturing mix toward higher value products. Changes in their tax policy are a sign that Beijing wants to produce more sophisticated goods. China charges a 17 percent value-added tax on all goods made there and then rebates part of that tax on export goods depending on the product and the industry. Rebates are being trimmed on furniture, flooring and other labor-intensive products and increased on technology products. Clearly, Chinese planners are seeking to steer the economy up the value-added curve. Two examples of this strategic trend are Intel and GM:
While China has lots of labor, the supply of skilled workers is short, especially in coastal regions where most manufacturing is located. Labor costs are rising just like occurred in Taiwan. Production of labor-intensive items like furniture in China may lose its luster. More importantly, China is issuing a wake-up call to the U.S. - don't rest on the belief that innovation is a sustainable competitive advantage. Creativity can, in fact, be outsourced from smart people wherever they live. U.S. Productivity Slows One reason inflation is proving stubborn for the U.S. economy is the recent decline in labor productivity. Unit labor output and the growth of the workforce define just how fast an economy can expand without inflation. In the late 90's, productivity enabled fast growth, low unemployment, low interest rates and low inflation. If the downturn in productivity proves more than temporary, our economy could be in for slower growth in living standards. And the Federal Reserve may be unable to lower interest rates in fear of higher inflation. In 4Q2006, productivity growth fell to 1.4 percent from its high of 4 percent reached in 2004. Some economists suggest that this decline stems from the difficulty producers are having boosting output with recently-hired, less well-trained workers. Others blame weak investment by companies since 2001, while some experts point to a lessening effect of technology on output. Have U.S. companies harvested all of the low hanging fruit? Do fewer cost-cutting opportunities exist to boost productivity? Stay tuned as Business Briefing follows this important story. Economic Factoid The gross domestic product of the U.S. is heading toward a mind-boggling $13 trillion annually. Just how big is that number? If Texas was a country, its GDP would nearly equal that of Canada. Florida's is equivalent to South Korea. Russia's economy is about 80 percent the size of Ohio's. This comparison gives one a sense of just how mighty our economic machine really is. Let's keep our eye on the ball and this miracle alive. Sector Report Kitchen Cabinets Cabinet sales continue weak following the end of a ten-year uptrend last November. According to the KCMA's Trend of Business Survey, February sales fell by 15.3 percent. YTD 2007 sales were down 13.4 percent. Drilling into the numbers, February custom cabinet sales fell by 6.2 percent; semi-custom cabinet sales, by 9.8 percent; and stock cabinet sales, by 21.1 percent. The latter category is favored by homebuilders while custom and semi-custom are traditionally more prevalent in remodeling.
Home Furniture As consumers struggle with rising mortgage payments and lower overall confidence, weakness continues in furniture retailing. Haverty Furniture, which operates 121 stores primarily in the South and Central U.S., reported that same-store sales fell 12.9 percent in February. That performance was its worst since April 2001, and management sees no catalysts to change the current downtrend. U.S. retail weakness has also impacted furniture makers around the world. 2006 imports of wood furniture rose only 3.6 percent vs. double digit growth in the prior two years. As a result, the market share of wood imports has stabilized at just over 50 percent. Upholstery imports continue to rise along with purchases of cut-and-sewn covers by U.S. furniture makers. Foreign-made upholstery now accounts for about 21 percent of U.S. retail sales. As this sector continues to restructure, the news at the company level remains mixed...
Office Furniture The Sector Outlook - To better understand this sector's future requires a brief history lesson. From January 1980 until office furniture peaked in early 2001, orders and shipments grew by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. The growth curve during that 21-year period was only interrupted by a brief recession in the early 90's. Much of this performance was driven by the growth of middle management in the 80's and increasing adoption of desktop computers and information networking. With the explosion of the dot.com bubble, the sector suffered a 37 percent decline with industry sales dropping from $13.35 billion to $8.465 billion in just 33 months. As the economy strengthened in 2003 and 2004, the sector gained momentum and showed double-digit growth in 2005. Order and shipment growth, however, weakened as 2006 progressed. In the last half of 2006 monthly year-on-year growth of shipments slowed to 6 percent from 9 percent in the first half while orders fell from 8 percent to 5 percent. BIFMA's most recent monthly report shows a slight reacceleration in demand for office furniture. February orders grew by 14 percent year-on-year rebounding sharply from a flat January. This performance was the first month of double-digit growth since last July. Imports grew by 16 percent in 2006 and continue to take market share. However many believe that U.S. producers will defend their turf with customization and fast delivery much like the cabinet sector. No revolutionary products, like the now ubiquitous office cubicle, are on the horizon that will drive above average demand. For that reason, sector analysts now believe that industry growth will fall to a steady 3 to 6 percent in step with the U.S. GDP. Not the halcyon days of yesteryear but not bad. At the company level...
Wood Flooring January shipments of strip flooring declined to 36.766 million square feet, down 16 percent compared with the same month in 2006. Non-Residential Construction The national office vacancy rate fell to 15.3 percent in 4Q2006. Analysts now predict that vacancies will stabilize at that rate in spite of continued strength in office construction. Spending on office construction jumped 18 percent last December vs. the previous year. Reed Construction Data expects this pace of investment to continue through 2008. That's lots of millwork and office furniture. Public PolicyWhat? Me Worry?By John Satagaj, email@jsatlaw.com
Okay, I am starting to worry about tax increases. With each passing day, my anxiety level increases. It is not one single thing that causes me concerns, but a collective of disparate and discrete events and developments. For example, consider the effort to close the tax gap. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has indicated that $290 billion of potential tax revenue goes uncollected. Congress has been pressing the IRS to come up with recommendations to close the gap. While I have serious concerns about some of the proposals, it is not the effort to close the tax gap that worries me. What worries me is what happens when Congress discovers that it will not be able to find a "pot of gold" from the efforts to close the tax gap. Our compliance rate is around 84 percent. Guess what? It has been at that same level for decades. The old expression is that you cannot squeeze blood from a turnip. The problem is when Congress discovers that the tax gap closing efforts are not going to yield big bucks, there are going to be quite a few disappointed individuals who have proposals to provide tax relief to their constituencies, for example, the repeal of the individual alternative minimum tax (AMT). The reason they are going to be disappointed is that this Congress is following "pay-go" rules. Under those rules, tax relief or spending increases have to be offset by tax increases or spending cuts elsewhere. No one expects to see this Congress cut spending, so everybody is scrambling to find revenue sources, which translates to tax increases. What they are finding is that previous Congresses have used many of the easy to adopt revenue raisers, like penalizing tax shelter promoters. That's why everybody was hoping the tax gap items would provide a new list of revenue raisers. If that does not happen, they will have to go to "Plan B." No one has a formal "Plan B" yet, but increasingly there is talk of shifting the tax burden off the middle class. Personally, when I hear that I consider it a euphemism for raising top marginal rates. It is not my job to protect the wealthy, but it is my job to protect sole proprietors, partners and S Corporation shareholders who pay tax on their business income through the personal rate schedule and therefore any increase in the top marginal rate keeps me awake at night. I do think the AMT is the item that could blow this wide open. A temporary increase in the threshold at which the AMT kicks in, expired at the end of 2006. If the AMT patch, as it is called, is not extended or the AMT is not otherwise addressed, the number of taxpayers projected to be affected by the AMT will rise sharply, from 4 million in 2006 to 25 million in 2007. If no further changes are made to the AMT, the number of taxpayers affected by the AMT is expected to grow to over 56 million by 2017. By 2017, almost one-half of all taxpayers who pay income taxes are projected to be affected by the AMT. The types of taxpayers who are affected by the AMT are changing over time. Historically, many of those subject to the AMT were the relatively small number of filers who used a narrow set of tax preferences that were not allowed under the alternative tax. (For example, relatively few taxpayers are eligible for incentive stock options, which receive less favorable treatment under the AMT than under the regular income tax.) In the years to come, however, the preferences that are not allowed under the AMT, and that will move taxpayers within its sphere, are some of the more widely used features of the regular tax, such as the personal exemption (which is used by all taxpayers) and the standard deduction (which is used by roughly two-thirds of filers). The AMT potentially affects almost all filers who itemize because they generally claim a deduction for state and local taxes, which is not allowed under the AMT. That broad reach of the tax suggests that taxpayers in larger families (who have a greater number of personal exemptions) and taxpayers with larger deductions for state and local taxes will tend to be affected more by the AMT than will other taxpayers. According to Nina Olson, the National Taxpayer Advocate, the burden that the AMT imposes is substantial. In dollar terms, it is estimated that each AMT taxpayer will owe, on average, an additional $6,782 in tax in 2006. In terms of complexity and time, taxpayers often must complete a 16-line worksheet, read 10 pages of instructions, and complete a 55-line form simply to determine whether they are subject to the AMT. The estimated cost for a full AMT repeal ranges from $718 billion to $1 trillion over the next decade. Even maintaining the higher AMT exemption level and indexing the AMT could cost as much as $870 billion over a similar time frame I am not saying a tax increase will be enacted tomorrow or even this year. I just have this growing sense this debate is coming to a Congress near you. By John Satagaj, email@jsatlaw.com
I am looking for some insights from you. There is a distinct possibility this Congress might make major changes to our patent system. I believe this is possible because a bi-partisan, bi-cameral group has introduced a patent reform bill. I honestly am not certain whether this represents good or bad news. The congressional group backing the bill is impressive. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT), and Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT), a senior member of the panel, joined with Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Courts, the Internet and Intellectual Property and Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, to introduce the Patent Reform Act of 2007. The bill would create a "first-to-file" system. According to the authors of the bill the American system is the only one in the world that still grants patents to the first inventor rather than the first to file a patent application. They believe the result is a lack of international consistency, and a complex and costly system in the United States to determine inventors' rights. According to the proponents, the bill also creates a more streamlined and effective way of challenging the validity and enforceability of patents. The United States Patent Office (USPTO) currently uses an interference proceeding to determine which party was first to "invent" the claimed invention, where competing claims arise. In this new bill, interference proceedings are replaced with a derivation proceeding to determine whether the applicant of an earlier-filed application was not the proper applicant for the claimed invention-such a proceeding will be faster and less expensive than were interference proceedings. An applicant requesting a derivation proceeding must set forth the basis for finding that an earlier applicant derived the claimed invention and, without authorization, filed an application claiming such invention. The request must be filed within 12 months of the date of first publication of an application for a claim that is substantially the same as the claimed invention. The party making the request must have filed an application not later than 18 months after the effective filing date of the opposing application or patent and must not have filed an application, within one year of the earliest effective filing date of the application, containing a claim that is substantially the same as the invention claimed in the earlier filing application. Said Representative Berman: "While cognizant of the enormity of the change that a 'first inventor to file' system may have on many small inventors and universities, we have maintained a grace period to substantially reduce the negative impact to these inventors. However, we need to maintain an open dialogue to ensure that the patent system will continue to foster innovation from individual inventors." The bill preserves the current rule that mandates that a damages award shall not be less than a "reasonable royalty" for the infringed patent and further requires the court to conduct an analysis to ensure that, when a "reasonable royalty" is the award, it reflects only the economic value of the patent's "specific contribution over the prior art," i.e., the truly new "thing" that the patent reflects. The defense to infringement for patents involving a "method of doing or conducting business" based on the alleged infringer's having reduced the subject matter to practice one year prior to the filing date is amended to apply to all patents and require only that the subject matter be commercially used (or substantial preparations be made for commercial use) prior to the effective filing date of the claimed invention. The bill creates a new, post-grant review for considering challenges to the validity of patents. It permits a person who is not the patent owner to file a "petition for cancellation" before the Patent Trial and Appeal Board. The petition for cancellation can only be filed (1) within 12 months of the patent's issue or reissue (known as the "first window"), or (2) if there is substantial reason to believe that the continued existence of the challenged claim is likely to cause the petitioner significant economic harm, the petitioner has received notice from the patent holder alleging infringement by the petition, or the patent owner consents to the proceeding in writing (known as the "second window"). Upon introduction of the bill, Senator Leahy said, "If we are to maintain our position at the forefront of the world's economy, if we are to continue to lead the globe in innovation and production, if we are to continue to enjoy the fruits of the most creative citizens, then we must have a patent system that produces high-quality patents, that limits counterproductive litigation over those patents, and that makes the entire system more streamlined and efficient. This bill is an important step towards that goal. I look forward to immediate and intense debate that will inform both the Members of Congress and the public about these improvements, that will allow us to further refine our legislation, and that will lead us to consideration on the Senate floor." As one might imagine, all the" big players" in patent law are lined up on one side or the other, but I just do not have a clear sense of the potential ramifications for smaller businesses. I welcome any observations you might wish to share. International Business DevelopmentThe Case for Fair TradeBy Harold Zassenhaus, hzassenhaus@fernley.com
A number of U.S. trading partners, most prominently China, actively have pursued for years policies that undervalue their currencies. Such exchange-rate misalignments artificially act as a subsidy that boosts the offending country's exports while significantly curtailing its imports. China's undervaluation of the yuan has resulted in increasingly distorted trade surpluses with the United States, foreign reserves that now exceed $1 trillion and foreign direct investment that is adding to greater and greater production in China at the expense of investment in the United States and other countries. It is estimated that the yuan remains undervalued by 40% or more even after a modest, 2.1% revaluation by China in July 2005. Just as important, China's actions have distorted trade with many of our other trading partners, a case in point being the furniture industry where China has built up a large and growing industry, not only at the expense of the US, but at the expense of many other nations as well.
Why Legislation is Needed Repeated, increasingly urgent pleas by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United States, among others, for China to adopt a more flexible exchange-rate program have gone unheeded. Unfortunately, the Treasury Department in its semi-annual reports (the next of which is due out this Month), persistently has chosen not to cite China for exchange-rate "manipulation" on the basis that it cannot be determined if China's policy of undervaluation is intended to gain an unfair competitive advantage in trade or to prevent adjustments in China's balance of payments. As recently as end April, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson insisted that an administration initiative he heads, the Strategic Economic Dialog", is spurring China to quicken its economic reforms. However, sentiment on the Hill to do something about China's unfair trade practices is growing. The U.S. ran a $233 billion trade deficit with China in 2006, and this year's first-quarter deficit of $46.4 billion was twice as large as in the comparable period last year. The WMMA feels that this longstanding approach by the Treasury Department has been fruitless and will remain so, and that a legislative strategy needs to be adopted to hold countries like China to account under their international legal obligations. H.R. 782, the Fair Currency Act of 2007, which Congressmen Tim Ryan and Duncan Hunter have authored, and which the WMMA and the China Currency Coalition have endorsed, amends the U.S. countervailing duty statute to provide that "exchange-rate misalignment" meets the criteria for a countervailable, prohibited export subsidy. HR 782 has 73 co-sponsors as of the beginning of April and we will be working to see that numbers increase to the point that legislation can be enacted during this term. A companion bill was introduced in the Senate in March by Senators Stabenow (D-MI) and Bunning (R-KY). As of April 1st, it had 7 co-sponsors and like the House, we are working to see it pass. We will continue to alert you of changes and challenges to the legislation's passage and seek your support. At this time, we urge you to contact your representative, ask them to support the bill in their chamber, invite them to visit you and your staff to discuss how foreign currency manipulation is affecting your bottom line, jobs and job growth in your company and region. To learn more about The Fair Currency Act of 2007, visit the WMMA website, http://www.wmma.org/members/inter_bus.cfm, or the website of the China Currency Coalition, www.chinacurrencycoalition.org, of which the WMMA is a founding member. Business DevelopmentSales Forecasting Tools
Members NewsConnecticut Lieutenant Governor Fedele Spends Afternoon Visiting Woodbridge Officials and Local BusinessesWoodbridge became the second stop on Lt. Governor Mike Fedele's Community Outreach schedule. He has pledged to visit every town in the state-visiting with schoolchildren, holding constituent hours, meeting with business owners and local officials to discuss whatever is on their minds. Woodbridge State Representative Themis Klarides joined Lt. Governor Fedele for the day introducing him to the business owners, chatting with First Selectman Sheehy and staying for Office Hours.
The afternoon started with a visit to Air Handling Systems-a family-owned small business. Jamie Scott and his father, David, shared their concerns and frustrations with Lt. Governor Fedele explaining the challenges they face daily trying to survive: dealing with the rising costs of doing business in Connecticut, offering reasonably priced health care to their employees and their families, being able to employ quality people at a competitive wage, keeping energy costs down, reusing any materials to help eliminate waste and cut costs. "We have worked with United Illuminating twice-having them come in to the offices and on to the production floor, showing us ways to be energy efficient and keep costs down," said Jamie Scott. "We reuse all the packing materials, crates and corrugated materials as packing material in our shipments. It just makes sense. As a small business we work hard every day to keep our costs down but we need help from the state and right now I don't see as much as I'd like." Air Handling Systems has been in business since 1950 as a family business. Jamie explained to Lt. Governor Fedele: "Our goal is to work hard to stay competitive, keep our employee family happy and stay in Connecticut." Lt. Governor Fedele summed up the day: "Representative Klarides and I worked in the legislature for a number of years and she represents her district well. Her constituents should be very proud of her and how hard she works on their behalf." The Lieutenant Governor continued: "I appreciate the Scotts taking their valuable time and share their concerns with me. As a business owner myself, I am fully aware of the challenges they face on a daily basis. I've promised to bring my business experience to Hartford and work with Governor Rell and Department of Economic and Community Development to make it easier to do business in Connecticut. Business owners are in the business of business-not dealing with red tape. If I can do anything to help reduce that stress I will."
Great Lakes Custom Tool Mfg., Inc. (Peshtigo, Wisconsin) was among nine family businesses that were honored at the fourth annual Wisconsin Family Business of the Year Award banquet. Three grand awards were presented and GLCT received the award in the medium size category which consisted of 50-99 employees. The Wisconsin Family business of the Year Award was created to highlight and celebrate the accomplishments and contributions of family businesses that make an impact on the Wisconsin business community. Winners are chosen by an independent panel of judges from nominations solicited from family businesses in Wisconsin. Criteria for selection include the family business' contribution to its community and industry, its positive links between family and business, and innovative practices used in its business.
Midwest Group One is excited to announce a brand new website, www.midwestgroupone.com, that launched in March 2007. Now incorporated under one banner (instead of five individual websites) are all the Midwest Group One product lines and systems from Midwest Automation, Orma Midwest, Midwest Sandright and Greco Manufacturing! The new design emphasizes not only vast product offerings with digital brochures and video, but application and specific markets, and updated distributor listings. Association NewsBill Norton Named WMMA Executive Vice PresidentKen Hutton Shifts to Senior VP of Public Policy & Industry Relations The Board of Directors of the Wood Machinery Manufacturers of America (WMMA) has named Bill Norton as its next Executive Vice President. He replaces Kenneth Hutton, who held the position since April 1992. Mr. Hutton will continue with the WMMA as Senior Vice President of Public Policy and Industry Relations, focusing on those areas of outreach where he has spent considerable time to the Association's benefit over the past few years.
Norton joined the WMMA in 2003 as Marketing & Information Director, with the intent of expanding his responsibilities each year. This expansion in job responsibilities resulted in naming Mr. Norton as WMMA's Executive Director in May 2006. "Bill brings to the position a strong, personal vision for WMMA's future, its members and the needs of small business owners combined with a principled approach to leadership," said Jim Laster, President of WMMA. "Given his leadership capabilities and his experience working within WMMA's fast-paced environment, Bill has an ideal background for continuing the WMMA tradition of excellence. Bill has worked with Ken and the WMMA leadership these past four years to develop and refine WMMA's goals, strategies and tactics; both will continue to work closely on the implementation of the Association's strategic initiatives. In fact, WMMA has retained Mr. Hutton to facilitate the 2007/2008 Strategic Visioning Meeting, while furthering the progress he has made with WMMA legislative goals and advancing a number of other initiatives, including partnerships with other associations and allied organizations." Prior to joining WMMA, Norton held a variety of positions in tradeshow and publishing fields, including General Manager, Events Division of North American Publishing, where he was responsible for launching and developing the company's tradeshow division. He also directed the development and marketing efforts for a number of conference and tradeshow companies leading up to his work with WMMA.
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| ©2007 by Wood Machinery Manufacturers of America, Philadelphia, PA. All rights reserved. This publication or any parts of it may not be reproduced in any form without written permission from the publisher. For permission to reprint articles or to send correspondence, write to: WMMA, 100 North 20th Street, 4th Floor Philadelphia, PA 19103-1443 Phone: (215) 564-3484 Fax: (215) 963-9785 E-mail: wmma@fernley.com The opinion expressed in any articles by outside consultants are their own views and not necessarily those of the WMMA. |
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