Cutting Edge Newsletter December 2008
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| Economic Fact Eventually the education of a country's citizens determines the state of its economy. Thus the findings of the recent United Nations study of education systems around the globe are troubling. Out of 24 countries, the U.S. ranks 18th in tests used to determine the reading, math, and science abilities of 14 and 15-year old students. South Korea and Japan rank at the top while Germany surprisingly falls in at 19th. |
Sector Report
Kitchen Cabinets
According to the KCMA's Trend of Business Survey, October cabinet sales fell by 22.3 percent versus the same month last year. Year to date cabinet sales have dropped 17.8 percent vs. 2007. Stock cabinet sales were down 18.5 percent, custom sales down 18.8 percent, and semi-custom sales off 16.9 percent showing weakness across all price points.
At the company level…
Home Furniture
2008 Furniture Shipments to Fall
Industry analyst Jerry Epperson is now forecasting a 7.2 percent decline in U.S. furniture and bedding shipments in 2008 and a mild 1.7 percent rebound in 2009. His predictions also show that industry shipments will not regain its 2006 peak until 2011.
Retail sales of home furniture are down an annualized 23 percent over the past four months.
Value of Furniture Industry Plummets
In 2002 the stock of the major publicly-traded U.S. furniture companies (Bassett, Chromcraft, Ethan Allen, Flexsteel, Furniture Brands, Hooker, La-Z-Boy, Stanley, and Havertys) was valued at over $6 billion. As of mid-November you could buy those companies for less than $1.5 billion.
North Carolina Training for Upholstery Workers
No surprise. Apparently the closure of so many U.S. furniture plants is resulting in a shortage of young workers wanting to enter the industry. As a consequence four North Carolina companies—Baker, Brayton, KI, and High Point Furniture—have initiated a program to train prospective upholsterers. The program, called CRAFT, is funded by a $165,000 federal grant to Guilford Technical Community College.
At the company level…
Office Furniture
BIFMA, the sector trade association, reported a 6 percent decline in October orders and a 2 percent rise in shipments. Year to date, orders and shipments are essentially flat vs. 2007. Analysts are now cautious about this sector's prospects given weakening in demand drivers such as white-collar employment, new office construction, and corporate profits.
At the company level…
Wood Flooring
A study released by the U.S. International Trade Commission reported that the U.S. wood flooring industry experienced a major increase in offshore competition over the past five years. Imports rose from $1.2 billion in 2002 to $2.7 billion in 2006 before falling back with the decline in home building to $2.4 billion in 2007. Like in wood furniture, the primary culprit is China, which is now the world's largest wood flooring producer.
While the volume of solid wood flooring produced in the U.S. rose through 2006, the value of domestic shipments peaked at $1.5 billion in 2004. During that time the market share of imports grew from about 16 percent to nearly 31 percent in 2006. The import share fell back to 27 percent in 2007.
Residential housing accounts for about 80 percent of wood flooring sales. Consumer tastes are trending away from domestic species like oak and traditional appearance in favor of more exotic species, wider plank flooring, and rustic looks like hand scraping. Plank flooring now has about 35 percent of the U.S. market. Also a significant share of all wood flooring is now factory finished.
The study found that U.S. producers' costs were competitive with foreign flooring plants with the exception of labor.
At the company level…
Non-Residential Construction
The American Institute of Architects' Architecture Billings Index dropped to an all-time low of 36.2 in October, down from 41.4 in September. Inquiries for new projects hit 39.9, also an all-time low.
The AIA's chief economist noted that government and non-profit projects are suffering from an inability to finance through the bond market. This institutional sector had been providing some strength in non-residential construction.
The individual rate discussion is being driven by the fact that under the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) the top individual marginal income tax rate was reduced to 35 percent. It will return to its pre-EGTRRA level of 39.6 percent in 2011. Sole proprietors, partners, and S Corporation shareholders pay tax on their business income on the individual rate schedule. We have a lot of S Corporations in the WMMA membership.
President-elect Obama pledged to eliminate the temporary rate relief for family taxpayers with taxable income over $250,000, before it expired. He spoke of doing so in the context of paying for health care reform. His proposal included restoring the two top rates to 36 and 39.6 percent respectively adjusted to affect only families over $250,000. For those in the top two income tax brackets - likewise adjusted to affect only families over $250,000 - he would create a new top capital gains rate of 20 percent. The top dividends rate for families making over $250,000 would be set at 20 percent. Since the election he has given indications he might not raise the top rate right away.
Using available tax data for 2005, the composition of the business community for tax purposes consisted of 21,467,566 Sole Proprietors; 1,987,171 C Corporations; 3,684,086 S Corporations; 2,763,625 Partnerships; and 1,981,249 Farms for a total of 31,883,697 businesses.
For federal tax purposes, most Limited Liability Companies (LLCs) elect to be taxed as partnerships whether they choose to organize like a corporation or partnership and they are included in the partnership column. There were approximately 1,465,000 LLC-Corporations and 100,000 LLC-Partnerships.
For S Corporations, 0.35 percent of S Corporations with gross receipts in excess of $50 million report 34 percent of S Corporation gross receipts. At $10 million in gross receipts, 2 percent of S Corporation report 55 percent of the gross receipts.
There are approximately two million C Corporations and there are a substantial number of C Corporations among the WMMA membership.
The income of a C Corporation is taxed directly at the corporate level. Shareholders are taxed on dividend distributions of the corporation's after-tax income (the dividend is not deductible by the corporation.)
C Corporations are taxed at a top rate of 35 percent for taxable income over $10,000,000. The benefit of graduated rates below 34 percent is phased out for corporations with taxable income between $100,000 and $335,000, and the benefit of the 34 percent rate is phased out for corporations with taxable income in excess of $15,000,000.
In addition to the regular corporate tax, the Code provides for an additional tax paid by the corporation at the top individual rate, imposed on certain corporate earnings that are not distributed to shareholders. An "accumulated earnings tax" can be imposed on certain earnings in excess of $250,000 ($150,000 for certain service corporations in certain fields) accumulated beyond the reasonable needs of the business.
C Corporations with over $50 million in gross receipts, which represent approximately 0.86 percent of all C Corporations, collect 85 percent of gross receipts of all C Corporations.
A marginal rate is the rate at which the last dollar of income is taxed. If the discussion expands to a broader discussion of tax reform, then effective rate of taxation is important. Technically, in the tax economists' world, the phrase is the average rate of taxation (taxes paid divided by taxable income.) When they refer to average effective rate, it is taxes divided by a broader definition of total "economic" income. We are not tax economists and for a discussion of what elements of the tax code and structure are important to business, we use the term "effective rates" and we mean taxes paid divided by taxable income.
There are countless deductions, credits, and other factors that determine a business' effective rate of taxation by virtue of their adjustment of taxable income. A big one that WMMA fought for is the one that allows manufacturing businesses to reduce their taxable income by a percentage of the income received from domestic production activity. The reduction is equal to 6 percent of the income from manufacturing, construction, and certain other activities specified in the statute, for taxable years beginning in 2008 and 2009. Thereafter, the reduction is increased to 9 percent.
If Congress offers to lower the top C Corporation rate, it will be asking for concessions such as the elimination of the domestic income reduction. The reduction can be taken by S Corporations as well and if their rate is being increased, it would be a double whammy. Maybe it is not a concern if we can migrate everybody to C Corporation status. But, also coming up soon is the expiration of the temporary low dividend rate. The migration might not look as attractive then.
Complicated? Yes. That is why we have to know what is important in determining our effective rate of taxation, not just the marginal rate of taxation. Time to get ready and do our homework.
International Trade: Year in Review by Harold Zassenhaus, zemg@erols.com
In a nutshell, nothing is proving the interdependence of nations more than the events of the past four months. For perhaps for the first time, all major nations are in or facing a recession. And, rather than natural trade ebbs and flows, we are being battered by quick and large swings in trade and currency movements.
Trade figures have not been released for the last quarter of 2008. However, when they are it wouldn't be surprising if the U.S. as well as our major woodworking equipment trading nations recorded huge swings in trade flows.
Reflecting the financial crisis in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere and the natural tendency to hang on to "safe" currencies and commodities in times of uncertainty, the U.S. dollar's value has risen over the past year, particularly over the last three to four months. The following table summarizes the Dollar's and Euro's climb against the currency of some of our major trading partners compared to a year ago.
| Foreign Currency |
% change in US Dollar Value 12/9/08 vs 12/9/07
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% change in US Dollar Value 12/9/08 vs 12/9/07
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| Australian Dollar | 33 |
17 |
Brazilian Real |
47 |
29 |
Canadian Dollar |
25 |
10 |
Chilean Peso |
36 |
20 |
Chinese RNB |
(7) |
(18) |
European Euro |
14 |
- |
Indian Rupee |
28 |
11 |
Mexican Peso |
26 |
10 |
New Zealand Dollar |
43 |
26 |
Polish Zloty |
25 |
7 |
Russian Ruble |
15 |
1 |
UK Pound |
37 |
20 |
It's not a pretty picture. All of a sudden our machinery is 25 percent more expensive to our Polish customers. However there are two factors shown above that soften the blow a bit: (1) the Euro appreciated as well so, U.S. price points, compared to European competitors, will not be seen as so great and; (2) China's currency value has increased compared to the Dollar and Euro making their products more expensive in the U.S. and Europe.
I would expect the U.S. dollar will begin to level off as the financial crisis abates, the recession finds its bottom and consumer confidence begins to climb. However, in the meantime, the stronger dollar will be a concern: our products are going to find resistance in many overseas markets and our European competitors will be reducing prices in the U.S. not only as a reflection of the dollar's climb but also as foreign competitors try to make sales any way they can. And, I would expect there to be wild swings in currency values as we have witnessed over the past quarter.
Furthermore, the global economic crisis is causing some countries to reevaluate their commitment to free or freer trade if they ever had one. China, for example, recently announced a stimulus package that would include increased incentives to its companies to export. Some European countries may enact export incentives as well to stimulate domestic production. Russia initiated a high export tax on log exports only to withdraw it for further consideration at the request of Finland and some of its domestic log traders. As an aside, more than likely Russia will go forward with log export restrictions in favor of its developing downstream industry.
Events of this year in particular have shown that countries increasingly are tied to one another. And, 2009 will not be an easy year for exporters. However, as bad as it may get, the times only reinforces the concept that to remain competitive, U.S. companies need to pay increasing attention to events taking place globally. Implementing a general international game plan is not an option; it is a growing necessity. Developing proactive country strategies where competitive advantages dictate is a necessity. I repeat what I stated at the beginning of this year: seriously weigh the advantages of becoming active internationally; take stock of your advantages; assess what you should and could do to take advantage of the ebbs and flows of international commerce and—ACT.
Promueble Furniture Supplier Show 2009, Guatemala, Central America, March 12-14, 2009
| PROMUEBLE is the largest furniture manufacturing, woodworking, and forestry show in Central America. The U.S. Commercial Service can provide assistance to your company in this show and market, even if you are not able to exhibit. During last year's show, the U.S. Commercial Service provided business facilitation services to WMMA members Tiger Stop, Black Bros. Co., Southeast Tool, and other woodworking machinery, cutting tools and supplies companies. Two of those companies are already working with a local distributor and the others are promoted at other local trade events in the construction and hardware industry. If you would like more information on this unique marketing opportunity, contact Commercial Specialists Javier Fortin at Javier.Fortin@mail.doc.gov or George Thomas at George.Thomas@mail.doc.gov. |
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Sales Forecasting Tools (Members Only)
Construction Put in Place - October 2008
Gross Domestic Product - Third Quarter 2008 (Preliminary)
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales - September 2008
New Residential Construction - October 2008
Purchasing Managers Index - November 2008
U.S. Leading Indicator - October 2008
The U.S. Department of Commerce Helps Prepare WMMA Members in Overseas Sales Trips
U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Commercial Service assisted WMMA participants in WOODEX 2009 in Moscow before members even departed the USA. The WMMA management team prepared a briefing book for all participants from research provided by the Commercial Service. WMMA Export Consultant Harold Zassenhaus then coordinated a presentation about the Russian market by William Thorn, the Commercial Attaché in the U.S. Embassy.
The read-ahead briefing book sent to members going to the show contained the following:
You Can Benefit, Too
Through U.S. Export Assistance Centers (USEAC) around the country you can contact a trade specialist to prepare similar research for you before going on an overseas sales trip. If you do not already have a contact at nearby USEAC, go to www.export.gov and enter in your zip code to find the nearest office.
If you want assistance to meet a local trade specialist, please contact George Thomas, Senior Trade Specialist in the Charlotte, NC, USEAC. He is on the Department of Commerce team assisting with the grant of $180,000 WMMA recently received to launch the India Service Center. He will identify a local trade specialist in the USA for you and make an introduction. His email address is George.Thomas@mail.doc.gov.
Invest in Woodworking Industry Education
Schools near you are ready to provide woodworking industry education to the next generation of your employees! Over 80 schools in 20 states provide the WoodLINKS USA program to more than 8,000 students. Twenty schools are waiting to become active providers of the WoodLINKS USA program. Please consider partnering with WoodLINKS USA by committing to an annual donation. WoodLINKS only needs 1,000 companies giving $100.00 annually to make a difference.
For further information, please visit the WoodLINKS web site or contact Mark Smith, national program director of WoodLINKS USA at woodlinksusa@netcare-il.com.
How Are Members Responding to Current Conditions?
Many members have asked WMMA and one another: What strategies and tactics are other wood industry companies using to deal with an unprecedented economic situation? To assist members to network, WMMA would like to put together a convenient forum for members to share their experience and perhaps take away some good, better and best practices that would work in their own situation.
What would be easy and convenient for you? Some suggestions are an open conference call, a webinar format or using the web site's online bulletin board.
Click here to email Association headquarters with your suggestions as to the best format. Let us know!
Public Policy Fly-In—Registration Deadline—January 9, 2009

Members—Click here for quick and easy online registration.
The Second Annual Woodworking Equipment & Wood Processing Fly-In
February 9 - 11, 2009
Washington, DC
Held in Conjunction with WMMA Committee Meetings
Archive Recording of "Economic Forecasting Webinar" Now Available
What if you could have predicted the current economic situation three to four years ago? Would you have done anything differently? The Institute of Trend Research (ITR®) has been advising WMMA members to prepare for the current economic situation for just that long. Using the very latest news and information, Alan Beaulieu discusses what you need to consider in order to chart a reasoned course through this turbulence. WMMA is pleased to offer this exclusive webinar archive recording for both members and the woodworking industry at large.
WMMA Members—$50 per location. Click here for more information.
Woodworking Industry Professionals, $100 per location—Click here to register.
WIC 2009—Equipping You to Succeed in Challenging Environment
April 29, 2009 - May 2, 2009
Sawgrass Marriott Resort & Spa Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Look for your registration packet in mid-January.
Nominations Now Open for the Ralph B. Baldwin Award of Excellence
Do you know someone who has made outstanding contributions to manufacturing, the wood industry, your company and/or to WMMA? Take a moment now to consider honoring an individual whom you believe deserves this highly recognized industry award. Member companies are invited to review the award description, competition rules and past winners, and submit their ballots to headquarters. Click here.
Housing Industry Thrives in One Corner of Atlanta
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As volunteers added the last finishing touches to their new homes at a special dedication event Saturday, November 22, Atlanta Habitat for Humanity's newest homeowners Linette Perkins, her two young boys and Elenor Jackson and her daughter met and spoke with WMMA Executive Vice President Ken Hutton. Ms. Perkins and Ms. Jackson warmly thanked him for their kitchen cabinets made by WMMA members during IWF 2008. "I was especially moved by the sincerity of Linette and Elenor and the joy and pride shown by their families," said Ken Hutton. "I was also impressed by the wonderful neighborhood of Atlanta Habitat homeowners and the hundreds of volunteers who showed up at this celebration. I think our WMMA members can be satisfied that the product we made during the show will be cherished by these hardworking ladies and other Atlanta families for years to come." The U.S. Technology & Demonstration Center—3,600 square feet of U.S. wood machinery manufacturing know-how at IWF 2008—showcased WMMA members demonstrating a cell approach in assembling a complete production line of kitchen cabinets. The "made in Atlanta" cabinets were donated to Atlanta Habitat for Humanity and the Atlanta Habitat Restore.
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"It was inspiring to see these families, new homes and Atlanta Habitat's exciting expansion plans for the future in the midst of a massive downturn in the housing industry," added Ken Hutton. "I was proud that the WMMA membership had such a meaningful impact."
The Building Block Party festivities concluded with an exuberant performance by the Atlanta Drum Line, which wowed the audience. "My ears are still ringing," said Ken Hutton.
![]() Ken Hutton with the Jackson family, Atlanta Habitat for Humanity 1,001st homebuyer. Photo: Ben Rose |
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![]() Ken Hutton with Linette Perkins, Atlanta Habitat for Humanity 1,000th homebuyer, in front of her new kitchen cabinets. Photo: Ben Rose |
![]() Ken Hutton receives a donor recognition plaque for WMMA’s contribution from Larrie Del Martin, Atlanta Habitat for Humanity President and Executive Director. Photo: Ben Rose |
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![]() The stage is set at the dedication ceremonies. Photo: K. Hutton |
![]() Volunteers perform last minute touches to one of the new homes. Photo: K. Hutton |
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![]() Volunteers perform last minute touches to one of the new homes. Photo: K. Hutton |
![]() A banner at the site of the new homes acknowledges all of the donors, including WMMA Photo: K. Hutton |
The Tide Is Turning, According to Latest Cost Study of The Manufacturing Institute
A combination of favorable U.S. policy changes advocated by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), actions by manufacturers to innovate and manage structural costs, and rising costs among major international competitors have contributed to lowering the aggregate cost burden faced by U.S. manufacturers over the past two years, according to an updated cost study by NAM's The Manufacturing Institute. Still, an excessive cost burden of 17.6 percent is a serious impediment to the ability to compete in the global economy. U.S. companies pay the second highest corporate tax rate in the world. One of the first goals to get the U.S. economy growing again must be to bring corporate tax rates under control.
Click here to access the cost study, The Tide Is Turning: An Update on Structural Cost Pressures Facing U.S. Manufacturers.
John Satagaj Contact Information Has Changed
As a free benefit of membership, all WMMA members are able to call WMMA Legislative Counsel Satagaj and seek his general legal advice on a variety of issues, from taxes to employment issues. He has new contact information:
209 Loudoun Street, SW
Leesburg, VA 20175
Tel: (703) 340-9596
Fax: (703) 771-2673
2008 in Review
Welcome New Associate Member
WoodProm, LLC
193 Walnut Tree Hill Road
Sandy Hook, CT 06482
P: 203-493-3394
www.woodprom.com
Rinat Khisyamov, President
WoodProm is a sales and marketing organization selling sawmill and woodworking equipment in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Microvellum Supports Educational Programs throughout the Country
WMMA member Microvellum, Inc. has donated a full software suite to St. Mary's Academy and College located in St. Marys, Kansas. St. Mary's is a private school located in rural northeast Kansas, with over 190 high school students attending. Beginning 2009, St. Mary's will expand the curriculum to incorporate a "Manufacturing Enterprise: Custom Cabinet Making" sequence, which will be a design and production curriculum for grades ten through twelve… Cabinetry students in the Kent, Ohio, TRHS WoodLINKS program were given an early Christmas present this year from national sponsor Microvellum. Students received t-shirts and mechanical pencils to accompany a donation to the program of a $100,000 cabinet design and manufacturing software package.