Cutting Edge Newsletter™ August 2008

Business Briefing

Is the Pendulum Swinging Back?
by Art Raymond, araymond@raymondnet.com


Signs are building that the exodus of U.S. manufacturing just
may be reversing:

  • Home furnishings retailer Williams-Sonoma announced plans to locate an upholstered furniture manufacturing plant in Hickory, NC. In five years the new plant will employ up to 820 workers.
  • Thomasville Furniture is adding 100 jobs at its case goods plant in Lenoir, NC.
  • Furnishings giant Ikea just opened a massive RTA furniture plant in Danville, VA.
  • Linwood Furniture, operating the once-shuttered Lexington Home Brands’ Plant 2 in Lexington, NC, is expanding its product line and adding employees.

These events are occurring in the face of an abysmal U.S. retail market for furniture and the reported idling of furniture plants in southern China this year.

Bottom Line: Seems the economics of offshore production are tilting slightly toward locating production here in the U.S. Is a tipping point on the horizon? Stay tuned.

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Read more about the reasons for this emerging trend in FDM magazine’s July edition.
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Homebuilding Recoveries: Looking Back to Look Ahead


In 2006 spending on residential construction fell 2.5 percent marking the end of a ten-year run of growing investment in housing. Since the end of 2006, the downturn has turned into a rout. Residential construction, including the new single-family, multi-family, and improvements categories, dropped a whopping 18.3 percent in 2007. New construction fell by nearly 25 percent.

New housing starts totaled 1.355 million in 2007. That performance was 480,000 starts below the average during the five-year run-up from 2001 through 2005. The pain, however, has continued into 2008, as housing starts in June were 27 percent below the same month in 2007. From the peak in January 2006, starts have plummeted nearly 60 percent.

You’ve heard most of the reasons. Oversupply is causing prices to fall. Falling prices lead to foreclosures as refinancing and selling are difficult. Banks have tightened underwriting policy making loans less available. We’re in what economists call a classic negative feedback loop.

Most say that a bottom will not be made until housing prices stabilize. Experts normally use two measures to monitor the price level:

  1. The ratio between house prices and annual household incomes – During the recent boom this ratio rose to 2.39 as speculative buying drove house prices to record levels. Currently the ratio has fallen to 1.88 – near its 17-year average.
  2. The ratio of house prices to rents – A lower ratio means people are more likely to buy a home. In 2Q2008 this ratio dropped to 20.02 vs. a peak of 24.90 and an average of 14.44 from 1985 through 2002.

By these metrics a bottom looks near. But this housing cycle is not normal. Home prices have fallen 16 percent this time vs. only 2.8 percent in the last downturn (1990-91). And worse, banks are foreclosing on homes faster than they can sell those already taken over.

The Fed and the Treasury are powerless to stop this price decline short of blowing up a million unoccupied houses as one guru suggested.

Have we hit bottom? When will the homebuilding market recover? Let’s look at past housing busts for some useful data.

As shown in Chart 1 the U.S. has experienced four major homebuilding downturns since the peak in late 1963 when the annualized rate of housing starts bottomed below one million. Table 1 shows those bottoms and the previous highs.


Table 1 - Housing Cycles

Highs

Lows

 

Month/Year

Annual Rate

Month/Year

Annual Rate

% Decline

Months To 1,550,000

October 1963

1,779,000

October 1966

843,000

52.6%

18

January 1972

2,494,000

February 1975

904,000

63.7%

18

November 1978

2,094,000

November 1981

837,000

60.0%

14

January 1986

1,972,000

January 1991

798,000

59.5%

38

January 2006

2,292,000

?

?

?

?

Average

2,126,200

 

845,500

59.0%

22

Source: U. S. Census Bureau

Assuming that the average decline in starts is about 59 percent, the bottom based on the January 2006 peak will be about 940,000 starts. That prediction is only marginally above the May 2008 rate of 937,000. With the market still weak, let’s say the low occurs in July 2008.  

How many months before housing recovers? Let’s define recovery as reaching the average annual rate of starts since 1959: 1.55 million. That number is also very close to the average rate of starts – 1.59 million – since the last bottom in 1991. The shortest recovery period to 1.55 million starts was 14 months; the longest, 38 months; and the average, 22 months. Based on these data, our definition of recovery will be reached between 3Q2009 (July 2008 + 14 months) and 3Q2011 (July 2008 + 38 months). The faster recovery will track much like the quick bounce back from the 1981-82 recession. The slower recovery will look more like the mid- to late-1990s as we grew out of the 1990-91 recession.

Is this forecast statistically airtight? No. Simple and logical? Yes. Watch the Census Bureau housing numbers reportedly regularly by the business media for a bottom in starts, use our model to estimate recovery timing, and keep your fingers crossed.

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Economic Tidbits

Many believe the mainstream media focuses wholly on the negative especially when reporting the economy. One example is its failure to trumpet the recent gains in the net worth of U.S. families. Yes, over the past six months net worth has fallen from $58.5 trillion in 3Q2007 to $55.97 trillion now. But the latter is still $15 trillion above where it stood in the first year of the Bush administration. That growth means more than one quarter of the wealth created since our country’s founding was produced in the last seven years!

Another example is today’s spending on gasoline and other petroleum products. Back in 1960 the average American family spent just under 5 percent of their personal consumption expenditures on gasoline, fuel oil, etc. That number gradually fell until the Arab oil embargo pushed it back to 5 percent in 1975. Oil spending rose to 6 percent in the middle of the 1982 recession. From there it fell to 2 percent in 1999, a figure that made pick-up trucks and SUVs ubiquitous. Today the figure is around 4 percent, still below the 1960 level in spite of $125 oil.
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Sector Report


Kitchen Cabinets

The downturn in cabinet production is now in its 20th month with no one in the sector predicting the timing of a recovery. According to the KCMA’s Trend of Business Survey, June cabinet sales fell by 20.1 percent versus the same month last year. Year to date cabinet sales have dropped 14.8 percent vs. 2007 with stock cabinet sales down a whopping 19.9 percent. Remember, too, that June 2007 sales were down 12 percent vs. the same month in 2006.

At the company level…

  • Masco, the largest cabinetmaker in the U.S., reported a 17.5 percent drop in its 2Q2008 cabinet sales to $608 million, down from $737 million in the same quarter last year. Operating margin for their cabinet operations came in at 6.1 percent, down from 13 percent y-o-y.
  • American Woodmark announced a 14 percent decline in its 4Q2008 sales. Sales to the remodeling sector dropped in the mid-single digits while its builder lines fell over 25 percent. With the company resisting idling of its capacity, gross margin declined to 16.3 percent from 20.9 percent in the same quarter last year. Operating margin held just positive at 0.3 percent vs. 5.5 percent y-o-y.

Home Furniture

Prices To Rise
With materials and transport costs rising, furniture prices will be increasing by 3 to 5 percent:

  • Foam producers have recently implemented a 20 percent increase due to rising chemical costs.
  • Shipping rates from Asia have risen $250 for containers landing on the U.S. West Coast and $350 for East Coast shipments. Plus bunker fuel surcharges are being adjusted monthly.

This development reverses the deflationary trend that resulted from the shift of production from high cost U.S. plants to low cost operations in China and elsewhere over the past ten years. Some producers have not raised prices for many years.

The poor profit performances of most furniture companies recently indicate that pricing power remains weak with rising costs not being covered fully by price rises.

Latest on Formaldehyde
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has denied a petition by the Sierra Club to make the California formaldehyde emissions rule a national standard. The agency noted that insufficient information is available to conduct the analysis required by the Toxic Substances Control Act.

However the issue is not dead. The EPA is evaluating a possible national formaldehyde standard with plans to provide advance notice of such regulation in the fall.

California’s standards will take effect in phases starting January 1, 2009, and will restrict emissions of formaldehyde from composite wood panels. Some producers indicate that compliant board will cost 10 to 20 percent more and drive end product prices higher.

At the company level…

  • Retailer Havertys, which operates 124 furniture stores, announced that its June sales plunged 23.8 percent vs. the same month a year ago. For the second quarter of the year, sales declined 10 percent.

  • Furniture Brands International, the second largest U.S. furniture maker/importer, announced the acceleration of its strategic plan. Initiatives include the expansion of its Indonesian capacity; the closure of a Lane upholstery plant in Pontotoc, MS, with workers being transferred to other plants and a case goods plant in High Point, NC, the implementation of multiple shifts at other plants, and faster exit of unprofitable Broyhill and Lane retail stores.

  • Producer/retailer Ethan Allen announced that its 4Q2008 sales fell 8.8 percent from the same period last year. Operating income fell to $19.1 million from $32.3 million y-o-y, a drop of 40.7 percent. The company’s network of retail stores totals 295 while it operates nine domestic manufacturing plants.

  • Producer/retailer La-Z-Boy reported a 9.8 percent decline in its 4Q2008 sales. Sales dropped across all product lines with upholstery falling 8.9 percent; case goods, 24.3 percent; and retail, 10.2 percent. Operating profit was $(0.8) vs. $12.8 in the same quarter last year.

  • Bassett Furniture Industries announced a 1 percent decrease in its 2Q2008 revenues. The company’s network of retail stores totals 127. Bassett no longer produces case goods furniture in the U.S.

  • Case goods and upholstery importer/producer Hooker Furniture reported 1Q2009 sales down by 8.1 percent. Gross margin improved to 30 percent as the company shifted to higher-margin imported wood furniture. The company no longer operates domestic case goods production.

  • Stanley Furniture reported 2Q2008 sales of $59.1 million, down 12.7 percent from a year ago. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 16.8 percent; operating margin, at 1.7 percent. Management announced the closure of its Lexington, NC, plant with the elimination of 350 jobs. Production from that facility will be relocated to its Robbinsville, NC, plant. This transfer will ultimately create about 200 jobs at that plant. The company now operates only two plants: 562,000 square feet at Robbinsville plus the 1.7 million square foot facility in Stanleytown, VA.
  • Salem Frame, a business unit of Rowe Fine Furniture, has upgraded its lumber drying and grading facility in Elliston, VA. The company supplies upholstery frame components to Rowe and kiln drying services to other customers.
  • Manufacturer Stickley has acquired the designs and other assets of case goods producer Nichols & Stone, the oldest remaining U.S. furniture maker. Nichols & Stone had been seeking financing to convert its factory from a fully integrated production facility to the assembly and finishing of imported components and then in June announced that its factory would close. Plans for the factory were not announced.
  • Brownstreet Furniture has acquired case goods producer Vermont Tubbs. The new owners did not announce plans for the Brandon, VT manufacturing facility.
  • Juvenile furniture specialist Stork Craft Manufacturing has acquired RTA specialist Canwood Furniture, which had announced its closure in March. Canwood, based in British Columbia, had suffered from the rising Canadian dollar, labor shortages, and global competition. Stork Craft will add juvenile items to some of Canwood’s existing lines, but a decision on whether to continue operating Canwood’s Penticton, BC, plant was not announced. Stork Craft owns 500,000 square feet of production space in Asia and distribution centers in Seattle, WA, New Jersey, and Vancouver.
  • Upholstery producer/retailer Norwalk Furniture has halted operations at its Norwalk, OH, and Cookeville, TN, plants as the company negotiates new financing. In addition to manufacturing, the company operated a retail network of 59 stores ranking as the 73rd largest furniture retailer in the U.S.
  • Contract furniture maker American of Martinsville, bought from La-Z-Boy by Hancock Park Associates in 2006, is eliminating 400 jobs at its Martinsville, VA, plant. The idled workers were employed producing wood case goods that will be shifted to foreign sources. The plant will continue to produce upholstery and employ about 150 workers.
  • Case goods and upholstery producer Theodore Alexander is adding 215,000 square feet to its Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, plant. The expansion will increase capacity by 50 percent and will provide additional onsite warehousing. The company operates 1.5 million square feet of manufacturing space and employs about 7,000 workers.
  • Producer and importer Douglas Furniture has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Office Furniture

BIFMA, the sector trade association, reported a 4 percent decline in June orders and a 1 percent decline in shipments. Year to date, orders and shipments are flat vs. 2007.

Analysts report that while the sector trend has weakened, industry demand has not collapsed, and their outlook is cautious. The demand drivers – business confidence, white-collar employment, and new office construction – are softer (see the note below on non-residential construction). However, any downturn will not be as severe as the 2001-03 decline when shipments dropped a whopping 40 percent.

At the company level…

  • Steelcase, the world’s largest manufacturer of office systems and business furniture, announced a 0.9 percent increase in its 1Q2009 revenues to $815.7 million. Operating margin fell from 6 to 4.5 percent. North American sales fell 9 percent while international sales rose by 29 percent.
  • Herman Miller reported a 7 percent gain in its 4Q2008 revenues with North American sales growing by 6.3 percent and international sales by 22.8 percent. Operating margin rose from 9.2 to 12.7 percent.
  • HNI Corporation announced a 2.1 percent increase in office furniture sales in its 2Q2008.
  • Knoll reported a 7.5 percent gain in its 2Q2008 revenues to $292.5 million. Operating margin fell from 13.8 to 12 percent.

Wood Flooring

Logging Ban to Impact Flooring Industry
The expansion of the Lacey Act now prohibits the import, sale, or trade of wood products made from illegally harvested timber. Every shipment of imported flooring must carry a label declaring its species and country of origin. As a result, prices of imported flooring are expected to rise.

Price increases ranging from 3 to 5 percent have been implemented by Mohawk Industries, Mannington Mills, and Armstrong Floors.

At the company level…

  • Mohawk Industries, in its 2Q2008 report, announced that sales of its Unilin flooring products fell 7 percent y-o-y. The operating margin of this product line dropped to 14.6 percent vs. 22.5 percent in the same quarter last year.
  • Armstrong World Industries reported a 20 percent decline in its 2Q2008 wood flooring sales due to the weak residential housing market. Flooring sales for the quarter totaled $168.8 million.
  • Shaw Industries Group has acquired Zickgraf Hardwood Flooring Co., Franklin, NC, for an undisclosed price. Since late 2007 Shaw has distributed Zickgraf products in the mid-Atlantic and Midwestern regions. The 55 year-old company produces unfinished and pre-finished sold wood flooring. Shaw acquired Anderson Hardwood Floors in October 2007.
  • Columbia Forest Products has sold McMinnville Manufacturing to Preston Millet, previous owner of Millwood Specialty Flooring. McMinnville was one of the last flooring operations remaining in Columbia’s stable after the sale of its flooring plants to Mohawk Industries in 3Q2007.

Non-Residential Construction

The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index rose to 46.1 in June but remained below 50 for the fifth consecutive month. A score below 50 indicates weakness in the pipeline for new projects that will be constructed nine to 12 months in the future.

Those firms specializing in institutional projects report billings growth as this sub-sector is yet to fall below 50 in the current downturn. However the commercial and industrial sub-sectors show no sign of immediate improvement.

Sector wide the only bright spot was an increase in the inquiries-for-new business score, which rose above 50.

The AIA Index score plus anecdotal evidence from millwork firms specializing in non-residential work yield a continued negative outlook for this sector.

Public Policy

Last Call, by John Satagaj, email@jsatlaw.com
When Congress returns in September, it hopes to be in town for only a month. Incumbents are eager to get back to their re-election campaigns. Congress will have two tax policy matters before it.

The first is whether to renew the Research and Development (R&D) tax credit. The credit expired at the end of 2007 and Congress is running out of time to renew it.

As has been the case time and time again in this Congress, the debate is whether Congress will raise someone else’s taxes to offset the lost tax revenue. As you know, this Congress has been operating under “pay-go” rules that require Congress to offset tax relief with either spending decreases (which never happens) or tax increases elsewhere. The fiscally-conservative Democrats in the House, known as the “Blue Dog” coalition, have forced the House to offset the R&D extension. The House has passed H.R. 6049 that extends the R&D credit and a host of other expiring credits and deductions and includes revenue offsets. Senate tax writers are telling their House counterparts that the Senate will never go along with the offsets.

Our friends at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) offer these compelling reasons to renew the credit. Manufacturers claimed 71 percent of the R&D credit in 2005. R&D fuels innovation that translates into new products and increased productivity. In the past decade (1994-2004), manufacturing productivity increased by 60 percent, primarily due to innovation and technological advances. Technological innovations, which are a major factor in spurring economic growth, result in spillover benefits to American workers in terms of higher wages and a higher standard of living. Only R&D performed in the United States qualifies for the credit, and 70 percent of credit dollars are used for salaries of employees engaged in R&D.

The NAM also notes the credit helps keep us competitive. In 2007, the United States ranked 15th among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries offering R&D tax incentives. Now, the United States ranks last. In 2008, the number of OECD countries offering R&D tax incentives is 21. Many of our economic competitors provide companies with a variety of generous and permanent R&D incentives. In 2003, foreign-based R&D spending by U.S. parent companies grew faster than domestic R&D spending. In 2003, the U.S. spent 2.6 percent of its GDP on R&D, lagging behind several other countries. Japan, Sweden, Finland and Israel, each spend 3.1 percent or higher of GDP on R&D. In 2002, China’s R&D spending was 1.9 percent of GDP and a significant surge in R&D spending continues with growth of about 9 percent per year. China now ranks second in the world behind the United States and China’s R&D spending continues to increase significantly.

The other issue is whether to renew the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) “patch.” This is the temporary increases in the income levels at which the AMT kicks in. The patch expired at the end of 2007. There is really no one opposing the renewal, it is a debate over the “pay-go” dilemma.

How big a deal is the AMT patch? The patch is more like a quilt in size. If the patch is not renewed, the AMT exemption is scheduled to fall from $44,350 ($66,250 for joint filers) for tax year 2007 to $33,750 ($45,000 for joint filers) for tax year 2008. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the present law decline in the AMT exemption amount will increase the number of taxpayers affected by the AMT from 4.2 million for tax year 2007 to over 25 million for tax year 2008.

Flow through tax entities, such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S Corporations, pass on their business income to their owners, and their owners pay income tax on the business income at the individual tax rates and so the individual AMT has an impact. While we do not have many sole proprietorships and partnerships among the WMMA membership, we do have S Corporations.

Last month, I wrote about the economic and tax policies of the two candidates. Increasingly, I believe the pressure is building for major tax reform. We cannot go on with these temporary tax policy debates. The list of expiring tax provisions over the next two years is astounding. How can you plan for your business? It is time to build a long-term, sensible, and stable tax system.

In the meantime, if you have an opinion on tax matters, this could be the “last call” for action in this Congress.

Business Development

Global Trade Trends in Wood Products, by Harold Zassenhaus, zemg@erols.com


The WMMA now has access to the official import and export statistics of 47 of our major trading partners. The 47 countries I estimate account for over 90 percent of trade in wood products to include: furniture, rough wood, planned sawn wood, mouldings as well as doors and windows.

This article highlights some of the trends in wood products trade. For a complete set of tables, go to the WMMA Country Evaluation Sheet, and click on the back up tables. You will need your member user name and password to access the linked tables. (If you don’t have one or forgot it, contact WMMA Headquarters at 215-564-3484 or email wmma@fernley.com). If you want statistics for a specific country and/or region and a specific product or range of products, please contact Harold Zassenhaus, WMMA Export Consultant, (301) 652-0693; email: zemg@erols.com. The service is free or at minimal cost for WMMA members.

The following are a few explanations to assist you in interpreting the trends:

  1. For a complete listing of the 47 countries on which the WMMA tracks imports and exports, click here.
  2. For a complete listing and description of imported and exported products covered click here.
  3. The data from the 47 countries is comparable and based on a universally accepted 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) of customs classification codes.
  4. The statistics from which I am pulling trends are official country import statistics of the group of 47 countries by country. For example, I state in this article that total international trade in wood furniture as represented by imports of the 47 countries was $49.1 billion in 2007. As a group, over $15 billion was imported from China. You may ask, “Why don’t I take the official export statistics of the 47 countries instead since this would reflect total global shipments of the world’s largest producers and not just shipments to the group of 47 nations?” The answer is simple: China under reports its exports and by a lot; in the area of wood furniture exports, by over 30 percent. For 2007 official Chinese export statistics show total exports to the world were $10.7 billion. The difference cannot be explained by transportation costs or diversion to Hong Kong or elsewhere. So, until we get reliable statistics from one of the world’s most important suppliers we will have to report trade trends through imports of a group of identified players.
  5. As a final comment, the information now available is extensive. The review that follows is only my assessment of what should be provided to all members and readers of the Cutting Edge. Please let me know what you think of it and please suggest other or additional data you would like to see on a periodic basis. I can be reached at phone (301) 652 0693; email zemg@erols.com.

Rough Wood (treated or untreated)
Global trade in rough wood reached over $12.4 billion in 2007 (as reported by the world’s 47 largest country importers), a 23 percent increase over 2006. Russia continued to dominate the export market supplying 35 percent of the total ($4.4 billion) a 24 percent increase over 2006, followed by the US (11 percent share), Germany (6 percent), New Zealand (5 percent) and Canada (5 percent), respectively.

Some of the fastest growing suppliers of rough wood include:


Fastest Growing Suppliers (over $20 million) of
Rough Wood, treated or untreated

Calendar Year: 2005 – 2007

Partner Country

United States Dollars

% Share

% Change

2005

2006

2007

2005

2006

2007

2007/2006

World

9197805062

10079522744

12409197741

  100.00

  100.00

  100.00

  23.11

Cambodia

185572

71938

20196474

  0.00

  0.00

  0.16

Mozambique

42038994

47572895

93355352

  0.46

  0.47

  0.75

  96.24

Latvia

231547590

182292144

349683771

  2.52

  1.81

  2.82

  91.83

Ukraine

27839252

26508926

49140104

  0.30

  0.26

  0.40

  85.37

Estonia

88420125

81520378

146674255

  0.96

  0.81

  1.18

  79.92

Sweden

170091677

178745626

308203441

  1.85

  1.77

  2.48

  72.43

Laos

9611636

17281459

27706511

  0.10

  0.17

  0.22

  60.33

Luxembourg

16037704

24477732

38735094

  0.17

  0.24

  0.31

  58.25

Slovenia

16240622

25294717

38072579

  0.18

  0.25

  0.31

  50.52

Ireland

24286731

25577996

37508197

  0.26

  0.25

  0.30

  46.64

 

Sawn Wood
Total sawn wood imports from the reporting countries equaled $27.8 billion in 2007, a 2 percent increase over 2006. Canada, Sweden, Germany, Russia and Finland were the top suppliers accounting for about 57 percent of total shipments. Canada shipped $8.4 billion or 25 percent of the total, a sharp 18 percent drop from the year before. Some of the fastest growing supplier nations are noted in the table below.

Calendar Year: 2005 – 2007

Partner Country

United States Dollars

% Share

% Change

2005

2006

2007

2005

2006

2007

2007/2006

World

26252781133

27317114036

27835536759

  100.00

  100.00

  100.00

  1.90

Ukraine

139002797

146048543

214267497

  0.53

  0.53

  0.77

  46.71

Russia

1425963305

1612759306

2148718840

  5.43

  5.90

  7.72

  33.23

Belgium

226639221

269085011

336029471

  0.86

  0.99

  1.21

  24.88

Poland

154681282

186245827

232015450

  0.59

  0.68

  0.83

  24.57

Austria

1316643178

1428706399

1749814144

 5.02

 5.23

 6.29

 22.48

Germany

1600300910

1867346562

2285958366

 6.10

 6.84

 8.21

 22.42

Italy

158656568

177984172

204734886

 0.60

 0.65

 0.74

 15.03

Finland

1426127363

1567099226

1793607456

 5.43

 5.74

 6.44

 14.45

Latvia

509041761

526607871

595486315

 1.94

 1.93

 2.14

 13.08

Czech Republic

334284774

409113759

453506033

 1.27

 1.50

 1.63

 10.85

 

Continuously Shaped Wood, Moulded, Tongued, Grooved, etc.
Total international trade (as measured by the 47 largest suppliers) of continuously shaped solid wood dropped by over 60 percent in 2007 reaching only $2.1 billion. China, once the largest supplier, exported $185 million, an 82 percent decline from their 2006 high of over $1 billion. The largest suppliers in rank order were: Brazil ($257 million), Chile ($242 million), China, Canada ($162 million) and Germany ($129 million). Of the top 20 suppliers only two registered an increase in exports: New Zealand (31 percent increase to $85 million) and Finland (11 percent increase to $76 million).

Builders’ Joinery
Total trade dipped 12 percent in 2007 to $8.5 billion. Canada provided $1.4 billion or 17 percent of the total with China, Germany, Poland and Austria rounding out the top 5 supplier nations. As with moldings, the international trade in builders’ joinery witnessed decreases by most of the larger suppliers. Only Poland registered an increase in shipments, with exports increasing 4.8 percent. The fastest growing markets included:

Calendar Year: 2005 - 2007

Partner Country

United States Dollars

% Share

% Change

2005

2006

2007

2005

2006

2007

2007/2006

World

8613651013

9735342997

8523406265

 100.00

 100.00

 100.00

 -12.45

Italy

172104446

197352547

245000567

 2.00

 2.03

 2.87

 24.14

Poland

360780081

480930640

504274049

 4.19

 4.94

 5.92

 4.85

Philippines

209938112

250610751

262885264

 2.44

 2.57

 3.08

 4.90

Denmark

371602816

435629817

462287379

 4.31

 4.47

 5.42

 6.12

Estonia

82799511

118731101

126510699

 0.96

 1.22

 1.48

 6.55

Wood Furniture
Total wood furniture imports topped $49 billion in 2007, an 11 percent increase over 2006. China continued to gain world market share supplying over $15 billion or 31 percent of world wood furniture trade. The second largest supplier, Italy, shipped $4.5 billion (9 percent of market). Other suppler nations rounding out the top 5 were Germany, Poland and Vietnam, respectively. Vietnam increased shipments by over 32 percent to $243 million. The fastest growing supplier nations were:

Calendar Year: 2005 - 2007

Partner Country

United States Dollars

% Share

% Change

2005

2006

2007

2005

2006

2007

2007/2006

World

41371330798

44581429486

49310904174

 100.00

 100.00

 100.00

 10.61

France

770277402

660369795

985327514

 1.86

 1.48

 2.00

 49.21

Finland

133191419

109629127

156353282

 0.32

 0.25

 0.32

 42.62

Vietnam

1492154970

1845712117

2432588808

 3.61

 4.14

 4.93

 31.80

Turkey

169403820

168609789

218618588

 0.41

 0.38

 0.44

 29.66

Germany

2563831337

2812731199

3533827233

 6.20

 6.31

 7.17

 25.64

Slovakia

322635132

385101526

477973499

 0.78

 0.86

 0.97

 24.12

Lithuania

342547664

433744202

525357917

 0.83

 0.97

 1.07

 21.12

India

275535181

301201458

352692812

 0.67

 0.68

 0.72

 17.10

Portugal

150510652

160163158

185328472

 0.36

 0.36

 0.38

 15.71

Estonia

139714205

159036831

183457228

 0.34

 0.36

 0.37

 15.36

Slovenia

185793765

188583308

213616365

 0.45

 0.42

 0.43

 13.27

Belgium

728956625

725056920

819953667

 1.76

 1.63

 1.66

 13.09

China

11230279296

13378595610

15110024392

 27.15

 30.01

 30.64

 12.94

Netherlands

468075193

489881908

549418512

 1.13

 1.10

 1.11

 12.15

Sweden

573801366

591542495

662449950

 1.39

 1.33

 1.34

 11.99

Note: the US exported over $900 million of wood furniture in 2007, a 7 percent gain. Clearly those US furniture manufacturers that remain are finding good and profitable markets overseas.

 

Business Development

R&D Tax Credit Success Means Cash for Your Company?
by Scott Schmidt

Black Line Group’s work with the R&D Tax Credit is featured in the current issue of Manufacturing Success Magazine. Click Here to read an article about Crystal Cabinet Works, Inc., a Princeton, Minnesota manufacturer of fine custom cabinetry, and how it benefited from the R&D Tax Credit.

For companies that have not taken advantage of the R&D Tax Credit in the past, this can potentially mean the creation of immediate and substantial amounts of cash, minimally into the many tens of thousands of dollars, and usually $100,000 or more. In addition, companies can reduce future tax liabilities and improve cash flow.

The definition of Research and Development (R&D) is much broader than people think. Manufacturers of all kinds, including metal stampers and fabricators, precision machiners, mold builders and plastic injection molders, often believe that they DON’T have R&D taking place. They mistakenly believe it’s only their customers who are doing the R&D, and that they are simply making products for their customers who provide them with drawings for products/parts. However, these companies can have substantial R&D taking place through their “PROCESS” development and improvement activities.

Black Line Group is a firm that focuses solely on helping companies take advantage of the R&D Tax Credit. We are not an accounting firm.

If you would like to learn more about the types of companies that might be able to generate and benefit from the R&D Tax Credit, or about Black Line Group’s approach, contact Scott Schmidt at 763-550-0111 or visit our website at www.blacklinegrp.com.

 

Sales Forecasting Tools


sales forecasting

U.S. Leading Indicator – June 2008
The June U.S. Leading Indicator reflects future weakness in the economy.

Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2008 Advance
Real gross domestic product – the out of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States – increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second quarter of 2008.

Purchasing Managers Index – July 2008
The net input from the Purchasing Managers Index this month is that the overall economy will avoid recession for the next six months but that the macroeconomic trend probabilities for 2009 are less than promising.

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders – June 2008
New orders for manufactured goods in June 2008 rose 1.7 percent from the prior month, to $457.6 billion. Shipments increased 1.6 percent, unfilled orders rose 0.9 percent, and inventories increased 1.0 percent.

IWF 2008 News

Made in Atlanta – A Community Project


When WMMA decided to establish the U.S. Technology & Demonstration Center at IWF 2008, members knew that it would be a major project with many moving pieces. Over ten percent of the membership is participating, and the circle of involved companies and organizations seems to expand daily as anticipation builds for this community project. After all, at the end of the show, participants can proudly point to kitchen cabinets made in Atlanta and bound for a local community organization to benefit Atlanta working families.

WMMA thanks the additional companies and organizations which have donated time, services and products. Their employees have demonstrated high energy, professionalism and an admirable can-do spirit. Their attention to the smallest manufacturing process or exhibiting detail has contributed to the success of the UST&DC. They know that as a result of their partnership with WMMA member companies, the UST&DC is able to build kitchen cabinets for Atlanta Habitat for Humanity and the Atlanta Habitat Restore.

To date, these generous companies include:

  • Atlanta Hardwood Corporation
  • Benchmark Communications
  • Blum Inc.
  • Expotechnik America Ltd.
  • Gardner & Son, Inc.
  • GES Atlanta
  • The Home Depot
  • On Location Industries
  • Oscar Einzig Photographers
  • Roseburg Forest Products
  • Taraca Pacific, Inc.

Participating UST&DC WMMA Members


Make sure to visit the UST&DC and encourage others to witness U.S. wood machinery and supplies in motion in one site. During IWF 2008, the UST&DC in Booth # 5752 (Hall B) will hold three daily demonstrations:

  • 9:40 a.m.
  • 12:40 p.m.
  • 3:40 p.m.

Restoring on a Budget



Some say that Atlanta Habitat ReStore is the best kept secret in town …
WMMA says it’s time to let the secret out …

The U.S. Technology & Demonstration Center – A WMMA Community Project at IWF 2008, in Atlanta on August 20 - 23, will benefit Atlanta Habitat ReStore, the discount home improvement store operated by Atlanta Habitat for Humanity. WMMA member companies in the UST&DC are using their wood machinery, and related products and services to produce kitchen cabinets that will be donated to Atlanta Habitat Restore as well as to Atlanta Habitat homes to be completed in the fall.

The Atlanta Habitat ReStore, now celebrating its 6th anniversary, is a budget shopper’s paradise, offering shoppers discounted prices up to 75 percent off retail!

When customers enter the ReStore for the first time, they are met by racks of new and slightly used merchandise, including a wide array of appliances, sinks, cabinets, furniture, toilets, doors, windows and much more. And there are always a few special surprises as the inventory changes daily.

It’s easy to become a regular after your first visit to the ReStore – the deals are just too good to pass up. A regular ReStore customer, stated, “After I found the ReStore, I’ve shopped here ever since.” And everyone needs to respect the ReStore Rule – “If you like it, buy it; it probably won’t be here tomorrow.”

The ReStore is a crucial part of Atlanta Habitat’s overall green initiatives; it has diverted over 1,300 tons of materials from going in the landfill since its inception. Donations of home improvement items are accepted from businesses and individuals.

It all works together…people and businesses donate items and receive a tax deduction, the ReStore sells them at drastically reduced prices to people who need them, materials stay out of the landfill, and all proceeds benefit the mission of Atlanta Habitat to build affordable, green, quality homes for working families.  

It doesn’t get any better than this – everyone wins. When customers shop at the ReStore, they are not only restoring on a budget, they are making a difference in the Atlanta community! The majority of the cabinets produced by WMMA’s UST&DC – and proudly made in Atlanta – will be donated to the Atlanta Habitat ReStore.

The Atlanta Habitat ReStore is located at 519 Memorial Drive, Atlanta, GA 30312 in the Grant Park neighborhood. It is open Wednesday through Saturday, 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m. Visit the website for directions, donation details and to view some of the current inventory at www.atlantarestore.org. For questions or to discuss a donation, call 404-525-2114.

Atlanta Habitat for Humanity, one of more than 1,600 U.S. affiliates of Habitat for Humanity International, is a nonprofit organization dedicated to providing affordable housing to Atlanta’s working families. Since 1983, volunteers from corporations and from faith-based and civic organizations have worked in partnership with qualified homebuyers to construct affordable, green, quality homes in Atlanta, which are then purchased through no-interest, no-profit mortgages. From 1983 to 2007, Atlanta Habitat built more than 940 homes in the City of Atlanta and Fulton County.

Now serving families in 10 counties, the organization is on track to build 60 homes in 2008, its 25th anniversary year, and celebrate the completion of its 1,000th and 1,001st homes by year end. The families who will live in these two landmark homes will enjoy and use kitchen cabinets made in Atlanta by WMMA member companies during an exciting August week of activities at IWF 2008.

For more information about Atlanta Habitat for Humanity, please visit www.atlantahabitat.org or call 404-223-5180.

WMMA Booth #BC20


The Association will be located on the connector bridge at Booth #BC20. The staff will answer membership questions or arrange member reservations of the private conference room.

Member News

Press Breakfast at IWF 2008


WMMA is pleased to host a very special breakfast on Wednesday, August 20, at IWF 2008 in the U.S. Technology & Demonstration Center (Booth #5752, Hall B). Member companies will present their innovative products and services to members of the trade press. These companies are:

Company

Booth #

Product Description

MultiCam, Inc.

6035

EZ Control Router Remote Device

FS Tool Corporation

8252

Aerotech System

Carter Products

5400

SandTrac Belt Monitoring Device

Onsrud Cutter, LP

8126

Tuff Core Dual Grade Carbide Line

TimeSavers, Inc.

5713

"Random Air Motion Blow-Off" Device

TigerStop, LLC

6268, 6269

TigerSaw, Fully Automated Crosscutting Saw System

Stafast Products

2729

Ultra Glide System

ShopBot Tools, Inc.

8436, 8649

"Buddy" CNC with Power Stick

Safranek Enterprises, Inc.

5952

Her-Saf Panel Router Accessory

Super Thin Saws, Inc.

9000

Ultra Cem Coated Sawblades

NAP GLADU

5973

Next G Series Tool

Loti Corporation

3027

Klickit Klip

Voorwood Company

8463

A1515-CNC Auto Feed Thru Shaper Sander