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Hitting Bottom?, by Art Raymond, araymond@raymondnet.com
Baseball great Yogi Berra said it best, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." However given the depth of this downturn, everyone wants to call the bottom, predict when the light at the end of the tunnel is no longer a train coming our way.
And we are hearing some good economic news that may indicate a bottom is near:
- Fewer Initial Jobless Claims While the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator, a related metric the number of new claims for unemployment benefits is a sound predictor of the bottoms of recessions. In past recessions the four-week moving average of new claims has peaked about four weeks prior to the economy forming a bottom. In this downturn that average peaked at 658,750 the week of April 4. On that basis this metric is calling the week of May 2 the bottom.
- Stronger Housing Starts Housing is the quintessential leading indicator. Starts rose 3.6 percent in June to an annualized seasonally-adjusted rate of 582,000. That's a long way from the 2.292 million starts in January 2006. Single family starts rose 14.4 percent, much higher than most experts were forecasting.
- A Turn in the Ratio of Coincident to Lagging Indicators This metric turned upward two months ago at the end of May. Since 1960 recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, end within two months of this ratio hitting bottom.
- Collapse in Business Inventories In 2Q2009 inventories declined at an annual rate of $141 billion. The shelves in warehouses around the country are so low that any upturn will cause manufacturers to run more hours, utilize more capacity, and expand the work week.
But a bottom is not a recovery, and according to some, may not be a real bottom. Look at these data:
- Falling Non-Residential Construction This measure fell in June with the commercial portion of this sector down 30 percent from last year. With rising vacancy rates and tighter credit standards, the pressure will remain on this type of construction.
- Declining Business Investment Spending on equipment fell nearly 9 percent in the 2Q2009, which ended in June.
- Weaker Consumer Spending The consumer represents nearly 70 percent of all economic activity in the U.S. In 2Q2009 she spent 1.2 percent less on an annual rate after rising 0.6 percent in the prior quarter. Spending, of course, is enabled by income, and it fell by 1.3 percent. Expect languishing wage and salary growth to be a strong headwind to spending in the near term.
- Growing Unemployment Experts are forecasting a 0.2 percentage point rise to 9.7 percent in July and a further increase to 10 percent by summer's end. Don't forget that after the last recession in 2001 employment did not turn until seven quarters after GDP stopped falling!!
Add some other interesting points about the housing market:
- Appraisal Difficulties New appraisal standards went into effect on May 1. Realtors now report more home sales cancellations due to low appraised valuations.
- Inventory Overhang The supply of existing homes is 9.4 months, down from 9.8 in May and a high of 11.3 months in April. Experts say that a balanced market occurs at 5 to 6 months. Plus the condo inventory is 13.4 months.
- Single Family Completions Completions rose by nearly 9 percent in June and are outpacing new home sales. It is taking builders a record 11.5 months to sell a new home vs. a long-run average of about 5.
- More Foreclosures The wild card is the overhang of potential foreclosed homes. One expert noted that the actual sale of homes in the U.S. in June equals the number of homes foreclosed in California in one day!
Remember this Yogi Berra was right. Economic statistics are imperfect. Most are "seasonally adjusted" to remove the effects of weather, annually repeating events like the opening of the school year, etc. in hopes of revealing non-seasonal features. Looking month to month at a particular metric can often be misleading. And at turning points like a recession's bottom, the data can become unreliable as an indicator. Sense can be made of such data only months, perhaps years, after the fact.
At the end of the day, our economy will begin growing again when the battle between the lure of affordable homes and the lack of job security is settled.
More on the New GM
Slipping beneath the headlines about the bailouts of GM and Chrysler is the news of GM's tax break. It seems that the new majority owner the federal government obtained a sweet deal unavailable to other businesses coming out of bankruptcy. The new GM will be allowed to claim a tax benefit from the $16 billion in net operating losses carried over from the old, now defunct company. Current tax code requires a business that undergoes a change in ownership to forfeit any prior operating losses.
Since the federal government owns 60.8 percent of the new GM, some say that collection of taxes from the company simply moves money from one federal pocket to another. But the United Auto Workers, owners of 17.5 percent of the new GM, will also benefit as the sheltered profits will be available to pay union workers and retirees. In addition to its common stock position, the UAW owns $6.5 billion in GM preferred shares that will pay $585 million a year plus a $2.5 billion note. Remember that the UAW contract must be renegotiated with GM every two years plus union members and retirees will be voting in the 2012 general election.
As The Wall Street Journal put it, if the Obama administration thinks that tax-loss carry forwards should be transferrable, it should change the tax code. For now, however, our government has handed a $16 billion gift to GM that's not available to Ford or other car makers. Seem fair to you?
Economics Quote
"It is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now… Cutting taxes now is not to incur a budget deficit but to achieve the more prosperous, expanding economy which can bring a budget surplus."
President John F. Kennedy, 11/20/1962
Sector Report
Kitchen Cabinets
According to the KCMA's Trend of Business Survey, June cabinet sales fell by 29.3 percent versus the same month last year. Year-to-date cabinet sales have dropped 32.3 percent vs. 2008. These performances follow poor results in 2008 vs. 2007: down 19.3 percent for the month of June and 14.3 percent year to date. Through June 2009 stock cabinet sales are down 26.3 percent, custom sales down 41.3 percent, and semi-custom sales off 35.7 percent.
At the company level…
- Masco Corporation, owner of the Merillat, KraftMaid, Mills Pride, and Quality Cabinets brands, reported a 31 percent decline in its 2Q2009 cabinet sales. For the quarter cabinet sales totaled $419 million vs. $608 million last year. Operating profit fell from 6.1 percent to (2.9) percent
Home Furniture
Furniture Imports Down in 1Q2009
Imports of wood and upholstered furniture from foreign producers were down by 23.8 percent vs. the first quarter of last year. Wood imports fell by 23.6 percent; upholstery, by 24.4 percent.
China retained its number one ranking among source countries with $1.133 billion of shipments, down 25.2 percent from 2008. Only Poland among the top ten source countries for wood furniture showed positive growth during the period. Vietnam continued to take market share from China in both product categories.
The first quarter performance follows on a 9.8 percent drop in furniture imports in 2008 vs. 2007.
China Raises Tax Rebates for Furniture Exports
The Chinese government, in an effort to stimulate exports, is reinstituting the rebate of value-added taxes paid by export furniture producers. As of June 1, exporters will qualify for a 15 percent rebate. These funds are returned to exporters upon presentation of shipping documents to the government.
Previously this rebate was cut to mid-single digits as China attempted to stimulate development of higher value-added manufacturing in the face of rising labor and overhead costs. As exports have declined in the face of global economic weakness, jobless Chinese workers have demonstrated. The government has also responded with massive spending on public projects such as highways, airports, and the like. China remains dependent on exports of all types.
Mexico Positioned to Increase Furniture Exports to the U.S.
At long last Mexican furniture producers are leveraging their proximity to the U.S. furniture market. Importers are reporting that costs from Mexico are now comparable with Asia on less-than-container load shipments.
Delivery speed is a benefit. The long supply chain for Asian sources requires more inventory in U.S. warehouses to ensure good service to retailers and consumers. Many importers keep 18 to 20 weeks of Asian-made furniture on hand vs. only four weeks of product made in Mexico. This advantage also translates into lower inventory obsolescence on products that don't sell through at retail.
Mexico's location also benefits producers offering customization programs. La-Z-Boy, for example, has relocated a large cut-and-sew operation to Mexico that will support final upholstery operations in both the U.S. and Mexico.
CARB Deadlines Relaxed
With the weak economy slowing final product demand, the California Air Resources Board has extended deadlines for distributors and retailers of composite panels that don't comply with the state's new formaldehyde emission limits. The sell-through deadline for panel producers is September 30, 2009; for panel retailers, April 30, 2010.
Retailers of finished goods made with non-compliant panels still face a July 1, 2010, deadline.
At the company level…
Office Furniture
BIFMA, the sector trade association, reported a 33 percent decline year-on-year in June office furniture orders. Shipments fell by 31 percent y-o-y vs. a 1 percent decline in 2008. These performances follow declines in May orders of 33 percent and 35 percent in shipments. The twelve-month moving average of industry shipments has fallen from $11.46 billion to $9.52 billion since February 2008.
Analysts are encouraged by early signs of stabilizing demand although the industry's primary demand drivers remain negative. Office furniture demand, however, tends to lag the broader economy by three to four quarters.
At the company level…
- Steelcase reported its 1Q2010 sales at $545.6 million, down 33.1 percent from the same period last year. North American revenue fell 31.8 percent; international sales, 39.8 percent. Management expects FY2010 sales to be down 33.5 percent over the previous year.
- Herman Miller announced its 4Q2009 sales at $320 million, a decline of 38.4 percent from the same period last year. Gross margin fell from 34.9 percent to 32.5 percent while operating earnings dropped from 12.7 percent to 4.5 percent. FY2009 sales were $1.63 billion, a 19 percent decline from the prior year. For the year gross margin came in at 32.4 percent; operating earnings, at 7.5 percent. In June the company acquired Nemschoff Inc., a maker of leading-edge healthcare furnishings. Nemschoff operates plants in Sheboygan, WI, and Sioux City, IA.
- Knoll announced a 30.9 percent decline in its 2Q2009 sales to $202 million. Operating profit fell by 47.3 percent although operating margin came in at 10.2 percent.
- HNI Corporation reported 2Q2009 office furniture sales of 324 million vs. $514.5 million in the same period last year. The 37 percent sales decline dropped operating profit by nearly 44 percent. For the first two quarters sales totaled $662 million vs. $980 million in 2008, a decrease of 32.5 percent. The company announced the closing of its Louisburg, NC, plant with the loss of 93 jobs and its South Gate, CA, plant.
Wood Flooring
At the company level…
- Armstrong World Industries posted flooring sales of $127.8 million in its 2Q2009, down 24 percent from the same quarter last year. Reported operating income of $0.9 million in the quarter was below the $12.4 million reported in 2008.
Non-Residential Construction
After three months of steady performance, the American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell to 37.7, its lowest level since February. The ABI has been below 50 since January 2008.
An encouraging sign is the interest in new projects, which remained very healthy at 53.8 following four months of growth. However, nearly half of all firms believe billings will decline in the second half of 2009.
Art Raymond is a manufacturing consultant specializing in furniture, cabinetry, millwork, and other value-added wood products. His firm, A. G. Raymond & Company Inc., develops management and technical solutions for wood products manufacturers around the world. Comments and questions are welcomed at araymond@raymondnet.com or through www.raymondnet.com.
Play or Pay, by John Satagaj, email@jsatlaw.com
Someone asked me the other day, "How plausible is it that I would willingly plunk down 8 percent of my payroll to pay for health care benefits?" First I said, "Let's take the 'willingly' out of it. I have never met a business owner yet who would part with 8 percent 'willingly.'" My answer was, "very plausible."
The 8 percent that we were talking about is the "or pay" part of the House majority's proposal for a "play or pay" mandate for employers under their proposed comprehensive health care reform plan.
Under the House majority's bill, employers who "play" would be responsible for providing coverage for employees and dependents. The bill provides that the minimum employer contribution is 72.5 percent of the premium for individual coverage and 65 percent of the premium for family coverage, or a proportional amount for non-fulltime employees. Family coverage for this purpose includes the employee's spouse and qualifying children.
Qualifying coverage will be established by agencies with jurisdiction. In general, essential benefits are:
- Hospitalization;
- Outpatient hospital and outpatient clinic services, including emergency department services;
- Professional services of physicians and other health professionals;
- Such services, equipment, and supplies incident to the services of a physician's or a health professional's delivery of care in institutional settings, physician offices, patients' homes or place of residence, or other settings, as appropriate;
- Prescription drugs;
- Rehabilitative and habilitative services;
- Mental health and substance use disorder services;
- Preventive services, including those services recommended with a grade of A or B by the Task Force on Clinical Preventive Services and those vaccines recommended for use by the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention;
- Maternity care; and
- Well baby and well child care and oral health, vision, and hearing services, equipment, and supplies at least for children under 21 years of age.
If an employer chooses not to play, the employer is subject to an additional payroll tax equal to 8 percent of wages. Employers with annual payrolls not exceeding $250,000 during the preceding calendar year are not subject to the tax. Employers with annual payrolls between $250,000 and $400,000 during the preceding calendar year are subject to a reduced rate, as follows: 2 percent if the annual payroll does not exceed $300,000; 4 percent if the annual payroll exceeds $300,000 but does not exceed $350,000; and 6 percent if the annual payroll exceeds $350,000 but does not exceed $400,000. Annual payroll is defined as the aggregate wages paid by the employer with respect to employment. Think of it as the total of Box 1 on all of your employees' W-2 forms.
So to the question about whether to play or pay. When I first heard the 8 percent figure, I did gasp. It sure seems like a big number. But the question was not about 8 percent compared to what an employer does now, when it chooses to play voluntarily. The question assumed that the here and now is gone forever, and the law passes.
If providing coverage under the House regime is the only other choice, 8 percent might end up a bargain. Four elements come into play. The biggest is the fact that I just do not see any sledge hammer to force cost containment on the whole system. While we may be able to manage some aspects of cost containment (e.g., more wellness and preventive care, fewer folks getting primary care through emergency rooms), the health care system itself, ranging from the pharmaceuticals to the hospitals to everybody else, appears to be making modest concessions. When you view this through a long-term prism (e.g., Medicare/Medicaid DECADES later) with no long-term cost constraints in a captive market, they can afford to make those shorter-term concessions.
The second element is the fact employers are picking up the costs for families, not just employees. The third element is the fact there will be fewer employer-managed care options. In addition to the benefit package itself, out-of-pockets, co-pays, and deductibles will all be limited by law/regulation. Fourth is the competition issue. Even if there are only private insurance options, eventually market share will settle. When Ma Bell was busted up, competition was great. How many of the baby bells exist today? Technology has kept some competition in that market: it is hard to imagine how competition can be sustained in a closed, captive marketplace in health care insurance.
(It does make a case in my mind, that if this ship is going to sail anyway, we probably need to lock in a tough-to-override mechanism for preventing eight becoming 10 and then 10 becoming 20 percent and so on.)
I suppose a fifth element might be that opting for the 8 percent takes the employer out of the health care business. No administrative costs, no picking and choosing as to who gets what. Write a check and be done with it.
We have a ways to go in this debate, and I am not suggesting this bill will become law, but the question asked of me did get me thinking about the play or pay future.
Special Offer to WMMA Members
John Satagaj has made available to members a monthly publication, Washington Report, which he will email directly to interested members at the beginning of each month. If you have not already informed Association Headquarters you would like to be on the distribution list, please contact us.
In addition, please go to the Members' Only portion of the Web site every week to read the latest Small Business Legislative Weekly report.
These materials are protected under copyright law and contain confidential information. It is for the sole personal, informational use of WMMA members and may not be reproduced or distributed in any manner. Thank you.
Global Trade Trends in Wood Products, by Harold Zassenhaus, Harold@zemg.us
The WMMA now has access to the official import and export statistics of 47 of our major trading partners. The 47 countries I estimate account for over 90 percent of trade in wood products to include: furniture, rough wood, planned sawn wood, mouldings as well as doors and windows. This article highlights some of the trends in wood products trade. For a complete set of tables, go to the WMMA Country Evaluation Sheet, http://www.wmma.org/members/secureDocument.cfm?docID=1103 and click on the back up tables. You will need your user name and password to access the linked tables. If you don't have one or forgot it, contact WMMA Headquarters at 215-564-3484 or email info@wmma.org). If you want statistics for a specific country and/or region and a specific product or range of products, please contact Harold Zassenhaus, WMMA Export Consultant, (301) 652 0693; email: Harold@zemg.us. The service is free or at minimal cost for WMMA members.
The following are a few explanations to assist you in interpreting the trends:
- For a complete listing of the 47 countries on which the WMMA tracks imports and exports, click http://www.wmma.org/members/secureDocument.cfm?docID=216.
- For a complete listing and description of imported and exported products covered click http://www.wmma.org/members/secureDocument.cfm?docID=217.
- The data from the 47 countries is comparable and based on a universally accepted 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) of customs classification codes.
- The statistics from which I am pulling trends are official country import statistics of the group of 47 countries by country. For example, I state in this article that total international trade in wood furniture as represented by imports of the 47 countries was $49.7 billion in 2008. As a group $14.7 billion was imported from China. You may ask, "Why don't I take the official export statistics of the 47 countries instead since this would reflect total global shipments of the world's largest producers and not just shipments to the group of 47 nations?" The answer is simple: China under-reports its exports and by a lot; in the case of wood furniture exports by about 30 percent. The difference cannot be explained by transportation costs or diversion to Hong Kong or elsewhere. So, until we get reliable statistics from one of the world's most important suppliers we will have to report trade trends through imports of a group of identified players.
- As a final comment, the information now available is extensive. The review that follows is only my assessment of what should be provided to all members and readers of the Cutting Edge. Please let me know what you think of it and suggest other or additional data you would like to see on a periodic basis. I can be reached at phone (301) 652 0693; email Harold@zemg.us.
Rough Wood (Treated or Untreated)
2008 global trade in rough wood dropped 9 percent from its record high in 2007 to $11.4 billion (as reported by the world's 47 largest country importers). With $3.5 billion in exports, Russia continued to dominate the market supplying 34 percent of the total, albeit an 11 percent decrease from 2007. Rounding out the top ten exporters were: U.S. ($1.2 billion), New Zealand ($732 million), Germany ($633 million), Canada ($509 million), Papua New Guinea ($405 million), Latvia ($309 million), Gabon ($268 million), Sweden ($267 million) and the Solomon Islands ($248 million).
On a bright note, some of the fastest growing suppliers of rough wood are shown below.
Fastest Growing Suppliers (over $20 million) of Rough Wood, Treated or Untreated Calendar Year: 2006 - 2008 |
| Partner Country |
United States Dollars |
% Share |
% Change |
| 2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008/2007 |
| Slovakia |
44973175 |
51890418 |
81356879 |
0.45 |
0.41 |
0.71 |
56.79 |
| Myanmar |
93105117 |
82150053 |
101504208 |
0.92 |
0.66 |
0.89 |
23.56 |
| Gabon |
184733120 |
222880154 |
268239751 |
1.83 |
1.78 |
2.36 |
20.35 |
| Estonia |
81520378 |
146875438 |
166735419 |
0.81 |
1.17 |
1.46 |
13.52 |
| New Zealand |
503801244 |
651927311 |
732426754 |
5.00 |
5.21 |
6.43 |
12.35 |
| Portugal |
98851976 |
128978249 |
143917490 |
0.98 |
1.03 |
1.26 |
11.58 |
| Belarus |
47729545 |
104931357 |
114331968 |
0.47 |
0.84 |
1.00 |
8.96 |
| Congo Dem. Rep. |
12313890 |
27958648 |
30418552 |
0.12 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
8.80 |
| Spain |
35060414 |
45825616 |
49497155 |
0.35 |
0.37 |
0.43 |
8.01 |
| Norway |
47072073 |
65254403 |
69499860 |
0.47 |
0.52 |
0.61 |
6.51 |
Sawn Wood
Total sawn wood imports from the reporting countries equaled $22.7 billion, a 19 percent drop from 2007. Canada, Sweden, Germany, Russia, U.S., Austria, Finland, Chile, Malaysia and Brazil were the top 10 suppliers accounting for about 74 percent of total shipments. Canada shipped $5.1 billion or 23 percent of the total, a sharp 25 percent drop from the year before.
Of the top 35 suppliers only the following three had positive growth.
Fastest Growing Suppliers (over $100 million in exports) of Sawn Wood, Whether Or Not Treated, Planned Or Fingerjointed
Calendar Year: 2006 - 2008 |
| Partner Country |
United States Dollars |
% Share |
% Change |
| 2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008/2007 |
| Australia |
75407543 |
82838364 |
101074494 |
0.28 |
0.29 |
0.45 |
22.01 |
| Cameroon |
76570363 |
106911338 |
119645090 |
0.28 |
0.38 |
0.53 |
11.91 |
| Thailand |
243917438 |
247340708 |
269388215 |
0.89 |
0.88 |
1.19 |
8.91 |
Continuously Shaped Wood, Moulded, Tongued, Grooved, etc.
Total international trade (as measured by the 47 largest suppliers) of continuously shaped solid wood continued to fall in 2008 but at a much moderated rate - 14 percent, versus the 60 percent plunge in 2007. Total trade reached $1.8 billion or 1/3 of its 2006 total of $5.3 billion. The largest suppliers in rank order were: Chile (208 million), Brazil ($189 million), Canada ($148 million), China ($147 million), Germany ($137 million), Austria ($109 million), Indonesia ($107 million), Sweden ($93 million), U.S. ($76 million) and New Zealand ($63 million).
The following countries exporting more than $15 million registered positive growth in 2008.
Fastest Growing Suppliers (Over $15 million)
Continuously Shaped Wood, Moulded, Tongued, Grooved, etc. Calendar Year: 2006 - 2008 |
| Partner Country |
United States Dollars |
% Share |
% Change |
| 2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008/2007 |
| Czech Republic |
32571826 |
18537148 |
30140127 |
0.62 |
0.89 |
1.69 |
62.59 |
| Russia |
23016887 |
15183548 |
17439566 |
0.44 |
0.73 |
0.98 |
14.86 |
| France |
76375680 |
24278966 |
27387057 |
1.45 |
1.16 |
1.53 |
12.80 |
| Spain |
41918037 |
16391281 |
17869522 |
0.79 |
0.79 |
1.00 |
9.02 |
| Netherlands |
94698408 |
28819483 |
30523430 |
1.79 |
1.38 |
1.71 |
5.91 |
| Poland |
103191790 |
34694726 |
36656430 |
1.95 |
1.66 |
2.05 |
5.65 |
| Argentina |
43635586 |
23190375 |
24231768 |
0.83 |
1.11 |
1.36 |
4.49 |
| Germany |
196944585 |
132970430 |
136840651 |
3.73 |
6.38 |
7.67 |
2.91 |
Builders' Joinery
Total trade dipped 6 percent in 2008 to $8.1 billion. Canada shipped $1.0 billion or 18 percent of the total with China ($919 million), Germany ($669 million), Poland ($623 million), Austria ($479 million), U.S. ($417 million), Indonesia ($310 million), Brazil ($262 million), the Philippines ($235 million) and Italy ($220 million) rounding out the top 10 supplier nations.
As with moldings, the international trade in builders' joinery witnessed decreases by most of the larger suppliers. The following countries, shipping over $80 million, had positive growth.
Fastest Growing Suppliers (over $80 million)
Builders Joinery, Windows, Doors, Parquet, etc. Calendar Year: 2006 - 2008 |
| Partner Country |
United States Dollars |
% Share |
% Change |
| 2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008/2007 |
| Poland |
480930640 |
515321053 |
623270188 |
4.94 |
5.96 |
7.66 |
20.95 |
| Czech Republic |
92515371 |
97602489 |
114111766 |
0.95 |
1.13 |
1.40 |
16.91 |
| Spain |
93449370 |
76070936 |
86002570 |
0.96 |
0.88 |
1.06 |
13.06 |
| Denmark |
435629817 |
483310051 |
535287388 |
4.48 |
5.59 |
6.58 |
10.75 |
| Estonia |
118731101 |
125316974 |
132052325 |
1.22 |
1.45 |
1.62 |
5.37 |
| Germany |
686109440 |
640590190 |
668889109 |
7.05 |
7.41 |
8.22 |
4.42 |
| China |
1012327509 |
884270773 |
919228326 |
10.40 |
10.23 |
11.29 |
3.95 |
| Hungary |
106232011 |
96672901 |
100135796 |
1.09 |
1.12 |
1.23 |
3.58 |
| United States |
358677287 |
403236958 |
416639100 |
3.68 |
4.67 |
5.12 |
3.32 |
| Belgium |
161022522 |
116711899 |
118787530 |
1.65 |
1.35 |
1.46 |
1.78 |
Wood Furniture
Total wood furniture imports reached $49.7 billion in 2008, only a marginal decrease from the adjusted $50 million in 2007. China remained the largest supplier, shipping $14.7 billion (down 2.7 percent). Its market share remained at about 30 percent. The second largest supplier continued to be Italy, which shipped $4.6 billion (9 percent of market). Other suppler nations rounding out the top 10 were Germany ($3.9 billion), Poland ($3.5 billion), Vietnam ($2.8 billion), Canada ($1.8 billion), Malaysia (1.8 billion), Indonesia ($1.6 billion), Denmark ($1.2 billion) and the U.S. ($961 million).
Despite global furniture woes, Vietnam continued to rack up double digit growth, increasing shipments by over 16 percent. Those countries registering positive growth and shipping over $100 million in 2008 were:
Fast Growing Suppliers (Over $100 million)
Wood Furniture Calendar Year: 2006 - 2008 |
| Partner Country |
United States Dollars |
% Share |
% Change |
| 2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2008/2007 |
| Ukraine |
66792328 |
81242682 |
106806625 |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.21 |
31.47 |
| Finland |
109629127 |
156419525 |
191592884 |
0.25 |
0.31 |
0.39 |
22.49 |
| Turkey |
168609789 |
218656193 |
264489383 |
0.38 |
0.44 |
0.53 |
20.96 |
| Hungary |
182994034 |
208264507 |
248009775 |
0.41 |
0.42 |
0.50 |
19.08 |
| Vietnam |
1845718925 |
2433281179 |
2840738604 |
4.14 |
4.86 |
5.72 |
16.75 |
| Russia |
86685762 |
102212001 |
115921226 |
0.19 |
0.20 |
0.23 |
13.41 |
| Sweden |
591488667 |
665244064 |
750962266 |
1.33 |
1.33 |
1.51 |
12.89 |
| Austria |
315086648 |
373780584 |
417752972 |
0.71 |
0.75 |
0.84 |
11.76 |
| Lithuania |
433744202 |
534834345 |
590493007 |
0.97 |
1.07 |
1.19 |
10.41 |
| Germany |
2812598159 |
3607402106 |
3918056880 |
6.31 |
7.21 |
7.89 |
8.61 |
| Czech Republic |
264681397 |
304301913 |
329414472 |
0.59 |
0.61 |
0.66 |
8.25 |
| Poland |
2840971127 |
3302040641 |
3535763647 |
6.37 |
6.60 |
7.12 |
7.08 |
| Norway |
254632807 |
279218070 |
297973953 |
0.57 |
0.56 |
0.60 |
6.72 |
| United States |
850813632 |
909699101 |
961252902 |
1.91 |
1.82 |
1.93 |
5.67 |
| Netherlands |
489881908 |
573577157 |
598717457 |
1.10 |
1.15 |
1.21 |
4.38 |
| Switzerland |
231643876 |
255309856 |
266757484 |
0.52 |
0.51 |
0.54 |
4.48 |
| Hong Kong |
125412896 |
137540455 |
142338503 |
0.28 |
0.27 |
0.29 |
3.49 |
| Portugal |
160163158 |
201100295 |
207537343 |
0.36 |
0.40 |
0.42 |
3.20 |
| Slovakia |
385100180 |
508786730 |
523735074 |
0.86 |
1.02 |
1.05 |
2.94 |
| Taiwan |
268800011 |
263410514 |
266203903 |
0.60 |
0.53 |
0.54 |
1.06 |
| Belgium |
725056920 |
844411251 |
852049581 |
1.63 |
1.69 |
1.72 |
0.90 |
Note: the U.S. exported over $960 million of wood furniture in 2008, a 6 percent gain on the heels of a 7 percent gain in 2007. Clearly those U.S. furniture manufacturers that remain are finding markets overseas.
Sales Forecasting Tools (Members Only)
Construction Put in Place June 2009
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales June 2009
New Residential Construction June 2009
Purchasing Managers Index July 2009
U.S. Leading Indicator June 2009
A WMMA 20 Percent Discount Offer for AME Lean Conference
WMMA's alliance with the Association for Manufacturing Excellence (AME) enables WMMA members to receive a substantial discount for the AME Kentucky 2009 Journey to Greatness International Lean Conference held in Covington/Cincinnati, October 19 - 23.
Register before Sept. 18th, 2009 and any employee of a WMMA member company will receive a 20 percent discount. Click here for details, contact information, and registration discount code.
Sign up Now for the 2009 Fall All Committee Meetings in Chicago
The WMMA Board of Directors, Strategic Visioning Task Force, and Committees are meeting at the 2009 Fall All Committee Meetings beginning Monday, September 28 to Thursday, October 1 in Chicago's O'Hare Hyatt Regency. Online registration, hotel and travel arrangements are easy!
How do I sign up?
Attendees can simply click here for more information. Please register for the meeting, reserve hotel rooms, and arrange travel by Thursday, September 10th. Please Note: Your meeting registration is completed when you receive an email confirmation for the events you have selected.
Market Research Highlights the Importance of IWF among Woodworking Machinery and Equipment Buyers
IWF is clearly the preferred woodworking trade show with 73 percent selecting this event over other shows according to a survey sent to over 42,000 woodworking professionals. About one in four respondents (26 percent) say they are relying more on trade shows for equipment decisions than they have in the past. Only 11 percent are relying less, while the majority (63 percent) is currently relying on trade shows to the same extent as in the past. Online research is an important factor in evaluating purchases of woodworking machinery/equipment. Almost half (45 percent) say it is extremely important. Three-quarters (74 percent) rate it within the top two levels of importance (5 or 6 on 6-point scale).
WMMA surveyed woodworking industry professionals to better understand their activities regarding trade show attendance and purchasing behaviors.
Members can download the complete report, Trade Show and Purchasing Activity Trends, on this members only page.
Vegas Was Hot!
The AWFS®Fair, July 15 - 18, 2009, in Las Vegas brought together the home and commercial furnishings industry, including manufacturers of woodworking machinery and other suppliers with furniture, cabinet manufacturers and custom woodworkers. WMMA members also met together for Association activities.

At the WMMA Board meeting at AWFS, new Director Greg Larson, Timesavers, is welcomed by WMMA EVP Ken Hutton. |

New Director Harry Miller, Mereen-Johnson, is welcomed by Ken Hutton |

Brian Donahue, Safety Speed Cut, and Chris Hacker, JLT Clamps, welcome new WMMA Board Director Allen Eden, The Original Saw Company. |

WMMA EVP Ken Hutton congratulates Jim Arvin, Dubois Equipment, on completing his WMMA board term. |

Todd Sommerfeld, Kreg Tool, receives acknowledgement of his WMMA board service from Ken Hutton. |

Outgoing Director Spencer Dick, TigerStop, accepts his token of appreciation from Mark Chappell, Alexander Dodds Company, and Ken Hutton. |

The Travaini Pumps team |

The NAP GLADU team |

The Original Saw Company team |

MultiCam builds its booth onsite! |

The Opti-Sand team |

The WMMA booth at AWFS Las Vegas 2009 |
Archive Recording of "Economic Forecasting Webinar" Now Available
Be prepared for continued volatility in the stock market through at least the summer and a tough 2009 all around. Listen to what ITR's Alan Beaulieu portends for 2010. This webinar on demand is available to WMMA member companies at no cost.
Members: Click here to access the archive recording.
Ken's Korner, More Than Just Wood It's Your Government; Take Ownership
It's August, which means that The Blessed 535 are not working. For Congress, the August recess is here. That means the Members of the U. S. House and Senate are home in their district and state offices for the entire month. When they return to DC in September, they will be making critical decisions about important issues, such as climate change and renewable energy, transportation, housing, and healthcare policy… Read more commentary by WMMA's executive vice president.
WMMA Management Team Update
Laura Mahone has been WMMA's Associate Director since December 2007. She immediately showed a flair for meeting organization a natural since she has earned a Certified Manager Exhibits™ (CME®) designation, recognizing her professionalism in exhibit management and marketing. Laura's title is changing to Associate DirectorCommittees and Meetings.
Gina Marinilli joined WMMA in May 2008 as Administrator Director for WMMA. She manages many of the daily activities as well as serves as editor for Cutting Edge and management team liaison for ASC 01, which is the industry's safety standard under ANSI. She recently completed advanced certification in editing from Temple University, Philadelphia. Gina's new title within WMMA is Associate DirectorCommittees and Communication.
Air Handling Systems Expresses Concerns for Proposed Business Tax Hikes in Connecticut
WMMA member Air Handling Systems of Woodbridge, Conn., hosted a visit by Connecticut State House Republicans on August 5, 2009. Company executive Jamie Scott and others expressed their concern for the impact of proposed increased taxes on businesses in the state. Connecticut as of this date had not passed a state budget. Read the story in the New Haven Register or watch a video of the visit.
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